Do Targeted Killings Work?

Moving Beyond Deterrence

“…The appeal of interrupted time-series analysis is that it allows researchers to evaluate the effectiveness of specific types of interventions or policies, such as stricter laws or police crackdowns, on the particular behaviors these policies are trying to affect (Goldkamp and Vilcica 2008;Ross 1982;Sherman 1990). Efforts to reduce terrorist behavior include terrorist apprehension and extended prison sentencing (Landes 1978), passage of anti-terrorism laws (Enders and Sandler 1993), assassination (Byman 2006;Hafez and Hatfield 2006;Jaeger and Paserman 2008;Maoz 2007;Plaw 2008;Zussman and Zussman 2006), curfews and containment strategies Maoz 2007), deportation (Maoz 2007), home demolitions (Benmelech, Berrebi, and Klor 2010), violent repression and military retaliation (Brophy-Baermann and Conybeare 1994;Brym and Araj 2006;Enders and Sandler 1993;Maoz 2007;Testas 2004), and indiscriminate repression (Lyall 2009). Some scholars have also examined effects of containment policies, such as installation of metal detectors (Cauley and Im 1988;Dugan et al 2005;Enders and Sandler 1993;Landes 1978).…”

Drones and Targeted Killing: Costs, Accountability, and U.S. Civil-Military Relations

“…59 Heyns states that transparency requires several things: 1) "that the criteria for targeting and the authority that approves killings be known," 2) "that drone operations be placed in institutions that are able to disclose to the public the methods and findings of their intelligence, criteria used in selection of targets, and precautions incorporated in such criteria." 60 The U.S. government has been criticized on all these grounds, except for the authorizing authority; President Obama has stressed that he personally approves all strikes carried out against terror suspects.…”

America's Targeted Killing Policy: Is it Right? Is it Working?

“…51 Even though some argue that dead terrorists are quickly replaced with others, the fact is that when you target highly skilled leaders or bomb makers, finding an equally qualified replacement is difficult, which severely hinders the organization. 52 Conversely, while leader decapitation appears to have acute effects, there is little evidence that a prolonged campaign against leadership realizes long-term reduction of terrorist activities, especially with religiously motivated groups. 53 Overall, there is evidence of short-term gains from targeted killing, but what it is less clear is whether it positively contributes to the long-term strategy of eliminating terrorism's root causes.…”