Do Street Robbery Location Choices Vary Over Time of Day or Day of Week? A Test in Chicago

Abstract

Objectives:This article examines the hypothesis that in street robbery location choices, the importance of location attributes is conditional on the time of day and on the day of the week.Method:The hypothesis is assessed by estimating and comparing separate discrete location choice models for each two-hour time block of the day and for each day of the week. The spatial units of analysis are census blocks. Their relevant attributes include presence of various legal and illegal cash economies, presence of high schools, measures of accessibility, and distance from the offender’s home.Results:The hypothesis is strongly rejected because for almost all census block attributes, their importance hardly depends on time of day or day of week. Only the effect of high schools in census blocks follows expectations, as its effect is only demonstrated at the times and on the days that schools are open.Conclusions:The results suggest that street robbers’ location choices are not as strongly driven by spatial variations in immediate opportunities as has been suggested in previous studies. Rather, street robbers seem to perpetrate in the environs of cash economies and transit hubs most of the time irrespective of how many potential victims are around.

An information theory approach to hypothesis testing in criminological research

“…This is consistent with recent work by Bernasco et al (2017), suggesting that robbers work in fairly stable places where targets are to be found. These researchers also point to the role of cash economies produced by businesses and facilities in attracting targets.…”

“…". Similarly, Bernasco et al (2017) avoid discussing statistical significance in their analysis of the combined effects of time and types of places on robberies in 24,594 census blocks in Chicago. Instead, they examine how odds ratios bracketed by standard errors depart from 1.0 for different 2-h intervals within types of places.…”

“…Building on Haberman and Ratcliffe (2015), Bernasco et al (2017) combine measures of place types with time of day and day of week to assess whether robbery increases for specific combinations of places and times in Chicago. They find little temporal variation except for the presence of high schools, and that robbery is higher in census blocks with a variety of small-scale retail places not normally viewed as criminogenic, such as restaurants, grocery stores, gas stations, and laundromats.…”

“…(Yu and Maxfield 2014, p. 314). Like Bernasco et al (2017), and Haberman and Ratcliffe (2015), we examine robbery. Unlike previous research, we distinguish robbery of commercial places and street robbery, expecting that the presence of different kinds of facilities and businesses will be differently related to each type of robbery.…”

“…First is the strong theoretical and empirical framework that has been built up around crime and place. Bernasco et al (2017) cite rational choice, routine activity, crime pattern theories and the geography of crime as complementary theoretical frameworks in understanding links between place and crime. Second, the role of ordinary businesses is inherently place-based, and the effects of ordinary businesses can be systematically compared to the effects of businesses described as criminogenic.…”