Do sanction types affect the duration of economic sanctions? The case of foreign aid

Abstract

What effect does the type of economic sanctions have on sanctions duration? Despite extensive research about their effect on sanctions success, little is known about how sanction types affect the duration of sanctions episodes. I argue that, among different types of economic sanctions, terminating foreign aid to target states (foreign aid sanctions) expedites target capitulation, because it imposes disproportionate costs on elites and crucial regime supporters. However, I also contend that the effect of foreign aid sanctions is rendered indistinguishable from other types of economic coercion over time, as target governments adjust to the adverse impacts of sanctions. The empirical tests using the Threat and Imposition of Economic Sanctions dataset provide supporting evidence for my hypotheses that foreign aid sanctions accelerate target capitulations, but this effect diminishes over time.

The termination of international sanctions: explaining target compliance and sender capitulation

“…If EUSANCT reports that a sanctions case was terminated as a result of a negotiated settlement, stalemate, or it simply fading away, we use their so-called HSE score to determine the nature of a given case's ending ( Jeong, 2019 ;Morgan et al, 2014 ;Weber and Schneider, 2019 ). This score, which is based on the coding definition of Hufbauer et al (2007) , ranges from 1 to 16, and indicates the degree to which the sanctions case contributed to the sender's goals.…”

“…Paralleling this finding for the target, winning coalition changes have a positive effect on the hazard that the target gives in. More recently, Jeong (2019) found that aid sanctions accelerate target capitulation. However, this study solely focuses on target capitulation as the outcome of interest.…”

Challenges of anti-Russia sanctions for metals and mining enterprises in Kazakhstan

“…Shokhin (2022) offers a somewhat different perspective on the topic: he explores the possibility that sanctions will stimulate import substitution and technological development of the targeted country. Jin Mun Jeong (2019) proposes a typology of sanctions based on the effects that different types of sanctions have on the duration of sanction episodes. Morgan, Bapat, and Kobayashi (2014) believe that multilateral economic sanctions are more effective than unilateral as they have a potential to produce a broader spectrum of effects.…”

How the possibility of a fight-back strategy affects the consequences of a sanctions regime

“…Some of these studies have resulted in codified and cohesive data banks of sanction cases (Hufbauer et al, 2007;Morgan et al, 2014;Peksen, 2019;Portela, 2016;Rapelanoro & Bali, 2020;Tyll, Pernica, & Arltová, 2018;UN Targeted Sanctions Qualitative Database, 2014). 2) Using the data banks mentioned above, empirical studies investigate the relationship between different parameters in sanction cases and test their assumptions about the effectiveness of the sanctions and other factors influencing the success of a sanctions regime (Hellquist, 2016;Hufbauer et al, 2007;Jeong, 2018;Jing, Kaempfer, & Lowenberg, 2003;Kaempfer & Lowenberg, 2007;Kavaklı, Chatagnier, & Hatipoğlu, 2020;Lam, 1990;Lektzian & Souva, 2001;Lohmann, 2016;Veebel & Markus, 2018b;Whang, Mclean, & Kuberski, 2013). Even the effect of sanctions on the energy efficiency of the target country has been discussed.…”