Do increases in the price of fuel increase levels of fuel theft? Evidence from England and Wales

Abstract

Fuel prices have increased sharply over the past year. In this study we test the hypothesis that increases in the price of fuel are associated with increases in motorists filling their fuel tank and driving off without paying. We use weekly crime data from six police forces in England and Wales for the period January 2018 to July 2022, combined with regional data on the number of fuel sales and average fuel prices. Our results demonstrate an overall weak price-theft relationship for the 238 week study period, less so than in previous studies. However, we find strong evidence that the recent spike in fuel prices was associated with elevated levels of fuel theft. The implications of our findings for future research and crime prevention are discussed.

Analysis of the Relationship between Fuel Prices and Vehicle Numbers in Urban Road Networks

“…An additional pivotal dataset requisite for comprehensive analysis pertains to the daily fuel costs. Fuel cost was researched by several scientists [21][22][23] trying to answer the question of how fuel price influences people's lives. Historical fuel pricing data for the aforementioned period (2 November 2022 to 4 January 2024) were collated from the online platform www.bankier.pl, with the dataset being current as of 5 May 2024 [24].…”