Do Expert Panelists Herd? Evidence from FDA Committees

Newham, Melissa; Midjord, Rune

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3476536

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 39 publications

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“…Further to the drug testing phase, another study looked into FDA advisory and expert committees which deliberate and vote on yes-or-no questions about new drug applications. Newham 6 found that sequential voting tends to sway or "herd" half of the members who take vote history (i.e. preceding votes) into consideration.…”

Section: Drug Development: Choices Biases and Conflicts Of Interestmentioning

confidence: 99%

Continuity and change in the drug supply chain: actors, actions, and aversions

Mendoza

2021

Journal of Medical Economics

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Aim: The pharmaceutical or drug supply chain is the means through which prescription medicines are manufactured, stocked, and delivered to consumers. How the complexity and fragmentation of this supply chain shape or reshape the decisions and courses of action as well as risk aversions of its actors (stakeholders) is the question we address in reviewing recent literature presented at the 2021 AEA-ASSA economics convention. In doing so, we identify key aspects or dimensions of the supply chain that remain unexplored or under-explored in the empirical literature. Approach: All original research relevant to the pharmaceutical supply chain were selected from the AEA-ASSA convention panel sessions. Empirical evidence was thematically identified, and the theoretical and practical implications of findings on firm and stakeholder decision-making were analyzed. Findings: Stakeholder choices and risks in the action steps or stages of the supply chain are conditioned or framed by variables that are less prominent and seldom documented in the empirical literature. These include firm ownership and marketing, the provider's IT system, pricing and discounts negotiated by pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), health insurance coverage, employer plan sponsorship, and hassle costs of drug prescribing and monitoring. On the other hand, prominent and well documented policy initiatives, like international reference pricing and renationalization or "decoupling" from global value chains, can have unintended effects on supply chain actors and end-users, including reverse redistribution. The continuing and changing multi-dimensional character of the supply chain adds to its complexity and fragmentation Conclusions: Organizational, operational, and value-adding measures to overhaul the drug supply chain and make it perform better have been proposed in the surveyed literature and elsewhere. Yet, aspects of the supply chain that bear a direct impact on firm short-term financial success typically assume precedence in evaluations of performance and effectiveness. Whether and to what extent the drug supply chain will change to cope and adapt to the major challenges and upheavals it currently faces are lingering questions.

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Section: Drug Development: Choices Biases and Conflicts Of Interestmentioning

confidence: 99%

Continuity and change in the drug supply chain: actors, actions, and aversions

Mendoza

2021

Journal of Medical Economics

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When voters like to be right: An analysis of the Condorcet Jury Theorem with mixed motives

Midjord

Barraquer

Valasek

2021

Journal of Economic Theory

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The Sequence Effect in Panel Decisions: Evidence from the Evaluation of Research and Development Projects

Criscuolo

Dahlander

Grohsjean

et al. 2021

Organization Science

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We examine how groups fall prey to the sequence effect when they make choices based on informed assessments of complex situations, for example, when evaluating research and development (R&D) projects. The core argument is that the temporal sequence of selection matters because projects that appear in a sequence following a funded project are themselves less likely to receive funding. Building on the idea that selecting R&D projects is a demanding process that drains participants’ mental and emotional resources, we further theorize the moderating effect of the influence of the timing of the panel meeting on the sequence effect. We test these conjectures using a randomization in sequence order from several rounds of R&D project selection at a leading professional service firm. We find robust support for the existence of a sequence effect in R&D as well as for the moderating effect. We further explore different explanations for the sequence effect and how it passes from the individual to the panel. These findings have broader implications for the literature on innovation and search in general and on group decision making for R&D, specifically, as they suggest that a previously overlooked dimension affects selection outcomes.

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Do Expert Panelists Herd? Evidence from FDA Committees

Cited by 4 publications

References 39 publications

Continuity and change in the drug supply chain: actors, actions, and aversions

Continuity and change in the drug supply chain: actors, actions, and aversions

When voters like to be right: An analysis of the Condorcet Jury Theorem with mixed motives

The Sequence Effect in Panel Decisions: Evidence from the Evaluation of Research and Development Projects

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