Do expert experience and characteristics affect inflation forecasts?

Benchimol, Jonathan; El‐Shagi, Makram; Saadon, Yossi

doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2022.06.025

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…1 Among expert forecasters in the Bloomberg survey of professional forecasters, those with previous experience in central banking are less likely to forecast deflation (Benchimol et al, 2021). 2 Simulations of the FRB/US model are used to construct "fan charts" that are published in the Tealbook as an indicator of the uncertainty surrounding the model-based forecasts Brayton et al (2014); Reifschneider and Tulip (2019), but these reflect model uncertainty rather than subjective uncertainty and are released with a long delay.…”

Section: E N D N O T E Smentioning

confidence: 99%

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Central bank forecasting: A survey

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2023

Journal of Economic Surveys

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Central banks' forecasts are important monetary policy inputs and tools for central bank communication. We survey the literature on forecasting at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada, focusing especially on recent developments. After describing these central banks' forecasting frameworks, we discuss the literature on central bank forecast evaluation and new tests of unbiasedness and efficiency. We also discuss evidence of central banks' informational advantage over private sector forecasters, which appears to have weakened over time, and how central bank forecasts may affect private sector expectations even in the absence of an informational advantage. We discuss how the Great Recession led central banks to evaluate their forecasting frameworks, how the Covid‐19 pandemic has further challenged central bank forecasting, and directions for future research.

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Section: E N D N O T E Smentioning

confidence: 99%

“…11Among expert forecasters in the Bloomberg survey of professional forecasters, those with previous experience in central banking are less likely to forecast deflation (Benchimol et al., 2021). …”

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confidence: 99%