Do Consumers in Europe Anticipate Future Inflation?

Quantification of Survey Expectations by Means of Symbolic Regression via Genetic Programming to Estimate Economic Growth in Central and Eastern European Economies

“…These results are in line with those of Łyziak and Mackiewicz-Łyziak (2014), who also found that the 2008 financial crisis period has led to a decrease in expectational errors in transition economies. In the last sub-period, SR-quantified expectations outperform the naïve model in six out of the ten countries.…”

“…states by means of panel vector autoregressive models, finding no significant differences in both groups. These results somehow contrast to those obtained by Łyziak and Mackiewicz-Łyziak (2014) who in a using a panel data analysis find that the weight of future inflation in the formation of expectations in transition economies was smaller, which could in part be attributed to the higher volatility inflation rates in those countries.…”

“…As official data are published with a delay of more than a quarter with respect to survey data, we use two-step ahead naïve forecasts as a benchmark. This measure is independent of the scale of the data, and it does not suffer from some of the problems presented by other relative measures of forecast accuracy such as the relative MAE (Hyndman and Koehler, 2006 Given that the 2008 financial crisis influenced the forecasting accuracy of surveybased measures of economic expectations (Łyziak and Mackiewicz-Łyziak, 2014), we recompute the MASE differentiating between the pre-crisis sub-period (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007), the crisis (2007-2010), and the post-crisis sub-period (Table 4). The results in Table 4 show that forecast accuracy of survey-based expectations significantly worsened during the crisis in all countries except the Czech Republic.…”

Let the Data Do the Talking: Empirical Modelling of Survey-Based Expectations by Means of Genetic Programming

“…It can also be seen that in all regions the performance of the evolved indicators varies depending on the level of variability: during periods of average growth the correlation between estimates and actual values is lower than during periods of high growth rates. These results are in line with those obtained by Łyziak and Mackiewicz-Łyziak (2014), who found that the 2008 financial crisis period had led to a decrease in expectational errors in transition economies.…”

A Data-Driven Approach to Construct Survey-Based Indicators by Means of Evolutionary Algorithms

“…Greece is the country that presents the highest standard errors. Łyziak and Mackiewicz-Łyziak (2014) found that the crisis influenced the forecasting performance of survey-based measures. Hence, in order to assess the effect of the financial crisis on the accuracy of the proposed indicator, we re-compute the MASE differentiating between the pre-crisis subperiod (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006) Kauppi et al (1996) found that the importance of business survey information increased during recession periods, as they obtained a significant improvement in prediction accuracy after taking account of relevant business survey information during Finland's great depression.…”