Do BVAR Models Forecast Turkish GDP Better Than UVAR Models?

Sacakli-Sacildi, Irem

doi:10.9734/bjemt/2015/17543

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…According to Toi [31] Nowadays the Turkey-U.S. relationship is going through one of the most turbulent periods in history. They share some vital interests, but harmonizing priorities can be difficult.…”

Section: The Historical Background Of Us-turkey Relations: From Allmentioning

confidence: 99%

U.S-Turkey Crisis and Its Impact on the Economy of the Black Sea Region

Abuselidze

Mamaladze

2019

E3S Web Conf.

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The process of political, economic and socio-cultural integration is underway of rapid pace in terms of globalization. Consequently, changes in one state will be reflected in other countries or region as a result of increased interdependence. The U.S. and Turkey have a historically strong relationship. They have a shared interest in economic collaboration, stability and security. The long history partnership has been tested in 2018 by a series of disagreements. Turkey and the U.S face their greatest diplomatic crisis. The lira lost almost a quarter of its value against the dollar. It should be noted Turkey’s increasing more independent regional role and influence. There are also signs that the crisis has the wider impact. However, the aim of this paper is to present the correlation between the U.S-Turkey crisis and the economy of the Black Sea Region countries. The paper consists of several thematic parts and a part dedicated to conclusions and recommendations. First one is introduction, second one is theoretical and provides to analyse specific issues related to US-Turkey relations: from alliance to crisis. The third part discusses the research methodology used during the research for this study. The article includes short and long term recommendations which are possible solutions for it.

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Section: The Historical Background Of Us-turkey Relations: From Allmentioning

confidence: 99%

U.S-Turkey Crisis and Its Impact on the Economy of the Black Sea Region

Abuselidze

Mamaladze

2019

E3S Web Conf.

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“…The author found out that BVAR approach outperforms the standard models (OLS and standard VAR). Sacildi [17] investigated if BVAR Models can Forecast Turkish GDP Better Than UVAR Models. In this study the macroeconomic indicators of monetary aggregate, unemployment rate, exchange rates and interest rates are taken part in the VAR models in order to compare out-of sample forecasts of GDP by using Bayesian vector autoregressive and unrestricted vector autoregressive models.…”

Section: Review Of Previous Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Household Credit in Kenya Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) Model

Lidiema¹,

Waititu²,

Ngunyi³

2018

AJAMS

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This research paper use Bayesian VAR framework to forecast the household credit in the dynamic market of foreign remittances inflow to Kenya. The Bayesian VARs model in this study employs the sims-Zha prior to estimate. Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) uses Bayesian methods to estimate a vector autoregressive (VAR). In that respect, the difference with standard VAR models lies in the fact that the model parameters are treated as random variables, and prior probabilities are assigned to them. This study employed data from the Kenyan Market for the period January 2005-December 2017. The forecast results were compared with the standard ARIMA model and the findings confirm that the BVAR approach outperforms the ARIMA model. Financial institutions can therefore use Bayesian VAR and other Bayesian models in predicting credit uptake given several micro-economic conditions. Banks should also find ways of tapping into these remittances especially those that pass through informal channels to improve their earnings from processing fees and also enhance the financial inclusion agenda through increasing account opening and loan uptake.

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Forecasting Turkish real GDP growth in a data-rich environment

Dogan

Midiliç

2018

Empir Econ

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Do BVAR Models Forecast Turkish GDP Better Than UVAR Models?

Cited by 3 publications

References 23 publications

U.S-Turkey Crisis and Its Impact on the Economy of the Black Sea Region

U.S-Turkey Crisis and Its Impact on the Economy of the Black Sea Region

Forecasting Household Credit in Kenya Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) Model

Forecasting Turkish real GDP growth in a data-rich environment

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