Do Better Prisons Reduce Recidivism? Evidence from a Prison Construction Program

Abstract

I study the effects of prison quality on recidivism using individual-level data from Colombia. To estimate causal effects, I leverage the quasi-random assignment of inmates to newer, less crowded, and higher service prisons. For inmates assigned to newer facilities, I find that the probability of returning to prison within one year is 36% lower. Criminal capital, access to rehabilitation programs, and negative prison experiences—which could trigger changes in intrinsic preferences over illegal occupations—seem to be important mechanisms. The program led to substantial welfare gains, even when assuming a low social cost per crime.

Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism

“…Recent evidence suggests that lengthy incarceration may favor rehabilitation (Landersø 2015;Bhuller et al 2020;Hjalmarsson and Lindquist 2022) and that prison conditions play an important role (Lotti 2022;Mastrobuoni and Terlizzese 2022;Tobón 2020). Many have argued that rehabilitation programs may drive these effects.…”

Production and persistence of criminal skills: Evidence from a high-crime context

“…19 We interviewed the regional directors of the Central and Northwestern regional offices of the National Prison Institute. See Tobón (2020) for further details on prison and wing assignment. The figure depicts the distribution of the count of peer-weeks of exposure to peer effects for incarcerated offenders.…”

“…Past literature focuses on different questions. For instance, on changes in the severity or probability of punishment that raise the deterrence effect (e.g., Anker et al 2017;Doleac 2017;Drago et al 2009;Hansen 2015;Mueller-Smith and Schnepel 2021;Tobón 2020). Other studies analyze improvements in access to and earnings in the legal sector that could increase the opportunity cost of crime (e.g., Bhuller et al 2020;Kling 2006;Schnepel 2018).…”