Do alien invasive species and climate change foster conservation behaviour?

1. Global biodiversity is at risk owing to climate change, and freshwater ecosystems are expected to suffer the most. In recent years niche-based models (NBMs) have been used to predict species distribution and are an important tool for conservation and management of aquatic ecosystems. In this work, the current and future climatic suitability areas of the invasive species Corbicula fluminea, which has known adverse ecological and economic impacts, were investigated.2. The species distribution modelling was based on nine algorithms in BIOMOD2, summarized in an ensemble forecasting approach. To model the species distribution, eight climatic parameters related to temperature and precipitation variables were considered. Three time frames (current, 2050 and 2070) were modelled using four increasing CO 2 emission scenarios.3. The performance of individual models was excellent according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and good to excellent according to true skill statistics (TSS). Annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month and mean temperature of the coldest quarter were the most important variables predicting C. fluminea occurrence. Of the total continental area, 6.6% was predicted to be suitable for C. fluminea in current conditions. 4. In the future, suitable area will increase from the current value of 6.6% to values from 9.4% to 12.6%, according to the 2050 projections and up to 12.7% in 2070 in high emission scenarios. 5. Overall, the results indicate that climate change will favour the expansion of C. fluminea into new river basins, especially at higher latitudes, and that future climatic scenarios may double the suitable area for Corbicula fluminea.

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble forecasting of Corbicula fluminea worldwide distribution: Projections of the impact of climate change

Gama

Crespo

Dolbeth

et al. 2017

“…This, in turn, will give rise to further management and conservation challenges. Thus, extra investment in monitoring and managing invasive species now, and putting in place necessary measures to prevent their import or export, will surely result in high potential gains in offsetting future ecological damage, and represent potential conservation gains (Tricarico, ). These investments for the protection of native species and habitats will contribute to the Aichi Biodiversity Target 9 (‘By 2020, invasive alien species and pathways are identified and prioritized, priority species are controlled or eradicated, and measures are in place to manage pathways to prevent their introduction and establishment’) and to the Sustainable Development Goal 15.8 (‘By 2020, introduce measures to prevent the introduction and significantly reduce the impact of invasive alien species on land and water ecosystems and control or eradicate the priority species’).…”

Section: Lessons Learnedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alien species in aquatic environments: a selective comparison of coastal and inland waters in tropical and temperate latitudes

Tricarico

Junqueira

Dudgeon

2016

Self Cite

ABSTRACT1. Biological invasions have had severe impacts on ecosystems globally, particularly affecting freshwater habitats. In the aquatic realm, marine environments have received less attention from researchers than their freshwater counterparts, and comparisons of the relative susceptibility of coastal and inland waters to alien species and their consequential impacts are lacking.2. The main aim of this review is to assess the 'knowns and unknowns' for alien species in aquatic habitats, evaluating the possible differences and similarities in biological invasions between freshwater and marine (coastal) environments. Three study areas with different climates and histories of bioinvasion were selected for comparison: temperate Europe, tropical Asian Hong Kong, and Neotropical Brazil.3. Although there were differences in spatial scale and availability of data for the three areas, fresh waters seemed to be more susceptible to invasion -and experienced more impacts -than coastal habitats, at least in Hong Kong and partly in Europe. Despite information about alien species in aquatic environments having increased in recent years, regional inventories remain incomplete, especially in the tropics where rigorous studies of the impacts of invasive species are generally lacking.4. More systematic effort is needed to develop up-to-date national and regional inventories of invaders, especially in the seas and particularly in the more biodiverse tropics, where the conservation gains from preventing alien invasions could be substantially greater than in other regions. Greater efforts are also required to increase public awareness of the need to prevent the establishment of potentially invasive species.

“…In particular, a warming climate is likely to lead to shifts in invasive species distributions and abundances in lakes, with unpredictable impacts on ecological processes and species interactions (Rahel and Olden, ). Indeed, Tricarico () emphasized the need for understanding behavioural responses of invasive species to global warming to help unravel synergistic interactions between climate change and biological invasion. Responses of individual lakes to climate change are likely to vary, depending on a range of factors including size, depth, altitude, latitude and hydrological pathways of inflows, making predictions of invasive species responses across all lakes complex.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing vulnerability of New Zealand lakes to loss of conservation value from invasive fish impacts

Collier

Leathwick

Rowe

2016

1. Predictions of invasion risk for seven non-indigenous fish species, ecological impact scores for individual species, and lake conservation rankings were linked to develop Invasion Risk Impact (IRI) and Lake Vulnerability (LV) indices that help identify New Zealand lakes most at risk of loss of conservation value from potential multispecies invasions.2. Species-specific IRI scores (the product of predicted invasion risk and species impact) highlighted Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) and the brown bullhead (Ameiurus nebulosus), as the species most likely to spread and cause ecological harm in lakes. For 3431 lakes >1 ha throughout New Zealand, total IRI tended to be highest for lowland riverine and dune lakes most of which are already colonized by multiple invasive fish species.3. The LV index indicated that lakes most at risk of loss of conservation value from invasive fish impacts were predominantly (i) in the northern half of the North Island where several uncommon lake types occur, and (ii) along the west coast of the South Island where conservation value is often greater, largely because of low catchment modification.4. The IRI and LV indices can be used to assist with setting priorities for surveillance monitoring, advocacy, and response planning targeted at preventing the establishment of invasive fish in moderate-to-high value lakes most susceptible to ecological impacts. Both indices can be adapted to accommodate alternative impact and conservation scoring systems, providing a flexible tool for local-and national-scale assessments of lake vulnerability to fish invasion impacts.