Do agri-food market incentives improve food security and nutrition indicators? a microsimulation evaluation for Kenya

Abstract

The sustainable development goal #2 aims at ending hunger and malnutrition by 2030. Given the numbers of food insecure and malnourished people on the rise, the heterogeneity of nutritional statuses and needs, and the even worse context of COVID-19 pandemic, this has become an urgent challenge for food-related policies. This paper provides a comprehensive microsimulation approach to evaluate economic policies on food access, sufficiency (energy) and adequacy (protein, fat, carbohydrate) at household level. The improvement in market access conditions in Kenya is simulated as an application case of this method, using original insights from households’ surveys and biochemical and nutritional information by food item. Simulation’s results suggest that improving market access increases food purchasing power overall the country, with a pro-poor impact in rural areas. The daily energy consumption per capita and macronutrients intakes per capita increase at the national level, being the households with at least one stunted child under 5 years old, and poor households living areas outside Mombasa and Nairobi, those which benefit the most. The developed method and its Kenya's application contribute to the discussion on how to evaluate nutrition-sensitive policies, and how to cover most households suffering food insecurity and nutrition deficiencies in any given country.

Modelling policies to improve affordability and consumption of nutritious foods for complementary feeding in Kenya

“…Guided by previous work by Marivoet et al (2020) and Ramos et al (2021) on the obstacles to affordability and the potential gains in reducing transaction costs, three simulations (Sim) were undertaken: Sim 1: 20% total factor productivity (TFP) increase on all focus ASF commodities (eggs, milk, chicken and beef).Given the inelastic nature of supply and demand, it is expected that the increase in availability through more supply would put more pressure and yield lower prices and make ASF more affordable. …”

“…To do this, we used a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Kenyan economy calibrated to a 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Our approach expands on previous studies (Ramos et al, 2021 ) by looking at the production level of the supply chain. As outcomes, we consider availability, price, consumption and welfare (as measured by ‘Equivalent Variation (EV) in income’, explained in the next section).…”

Crop diversity, sustainable food and nutritional security among smallholder farmers in Ghana

“…, 2017). The absence of a well-functioning market limits household consumption and sustainable food production (Feyisa, 2021; Ramos et al. , 2021; Muller, 2009).…”

“…In addition to socioeconomic endowment and behavioral practices, the market links farm income to household dietary diversity (Rajendran et al, 2017). The absence of a wellfunctioning market limits household consumption and sustainable food production (Feyisa, 2021;Ramos et al, 2021;Muller, 2009). A well-functioning input and output market thus allows farmers to specialize, which increases yields and crop sales (Ahmed, 2022;Barrett, 2008;Tesfay, 2020).…”

Impact evaluation of a community nutrition and livelihood program on child nutrition in rural Bangladesh

“…Nutrition‐sensitive approaches to enhance food security, child care, and hygienic environmental and health services have shown the potential to mitigate the burden of child stunting (Ruel et al, 2018). Economic status can play a key role in improving nutritional quality in micronutrient intake and daily energy consumption by increasing purchasing power, particularly benefiting those most in poverty (Ramos et al, 2021). Previous literature analyzing the prevalence of child stunting and gross domestic production (GDP) per person in the country reported that a 10% increase in GDP per person predicts an almost 6% reduction in stunting among the ultrapoor population.…”