Objectives
To determine how infant feeding recommendations can maximize HIV-free survival (HFS) among HIV-exposed, uninfected African infants, balancing risks of breastmilk-associated HIV infection with setting-specific risks of illness and death associated with replacement feeding.
Design
Validated mathematical model of HIV-exposed, uninfected infants, with published data from Africa.
Methods
We projected 24-month HFS using combinations of: 1) maternal CD4, 2) antiretroviral (ARV) availability, and 3) relative risk of mortality among replacement-fed compared to breastfed infants (“RR-RF,” range: 1.0–6.0). For each combination, we identified the “optimal” breastfeeding duration (0–24 months) maximizing HFS. We compared HFS under an “individualized” approach, based on the above parameters, to the World Health Organization (WHO) “public health approach” (12 months’ breastfeeding for all HIV-infected women).
Results
Projected HFS was 65–93%. When RR-RF=1.0, replacement feeding from birth maximized HFS. At a commonly reported RR-RF value (2.0), optimal breastfeeding duration was 3–12 months, depending on maternal CD4 and ARV availability. As RR-RF increased, optimal breastfeeding duration increased. Compared to the public health approach, an individualized approach improved absolute HFS by <1% if RR-RF=2.0–4.0, by 3% if RR-RF=1.0 or 6.0, and by greater amounts if access to ARVs was limited.
Conclusions
Tailoring breastfeeding duration to maternal CD4, ARV availability, and local replacement feeding safety can optimize HFS among HIV-exposed infants. An individualized approach leads to moderate gains in HFS, but only when mortality risks from replacement feeding are very low or very high, or ARV availability is limited. The WHO public health approach is beneficial in most resource-limited settings.