Diversion Rate Estimation Model for Unexperienced Transportation Mode by Considering Maximum Willingness-to-pay: A Case Study of Personal Rapid Transit

Abstract

Personal Rapid Transit(PRT) has emerged as a promising transportation mode for transit-oriented sustainable communities. In this study, an alternative design of questionnaire survey is proposed in order to capture traveler's perception of an unexperienced transportation mode. This study aims at predicting the mode choice diversion behavior of potential PRT users who do not have experience of using it previously, considering their willingness-to-pay. The proposed model was applied to predict an aggregate forecast of PRT patronage for the city of Songdo where PRT is considered to be constructed. For validation of the proposed model, the price elasticity of PRT demand was analyzed, compared with existing models. The analysis results suggest that the proposed design of questionnaire survey is able to capture respondents' attitude and perception to unexperienced transportation mode in an effective manner. Also, they show that the proposed diversion rate model is more realistic than existing models in explaining the effects of users' willingness-to-pay for predicting PRT patronage.

Heterogeneity in the Preferences of Potential Users of Automated Transit Network (ATN)

“…In the past decade, other research has been conducted to predict changes in the mode choice behavior of respondents by checking their willingness to pay (WTP) [19,20]. One of the most comprehensive research studies evaluating ATN systems, called Evaluation and Demonstration of Innovative City Transport (EDICT), showed that not only was the concept of ATN welcomed by the public in all the cities that participated in the project, but also people would be willing to pay a fare of two to three times the amount set out in the project survey because this system ofered additional benefts compared to conventional public transport modes [13].…”