Diverse Inter-Annual Variations of Winter Siberian High and Link With Eurasian Snow in Observation and BCC-CSM2-MR Coupled Model Simulation

Sun, Cheng; Zuo, Jinqing; Shi, Xiaohui; Liu, Xiangwen; Liu, Haiwen

doi:10.3389/feart.2021.761311

Cited by 16 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 76 publications

(81 reference statements)

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“…The Siberian High (SH) index is the seasonal mean of area-averaged monthly 500 hPa geopotential height over 60 • N-85 • N and 30 • E-120 • E (black box region in figure 1(b)). The area represents the location where the 500 hPa geopotential height closely associates with the WACE pattern of variability (grey contours in figure 1(b)) and follows the region shown in a previous study as the footprint of SH at 500 hPa (Sun et al 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 55%

Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern

Ghosh,

Manzini,

Gao

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The observed winter Barents-Kara Sea ice concentration (BKS SIC) has shown a close association with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of Eurasian winter surface air temperature (SAT) variability, known as Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. However, the potential role of BKS SIC on this WACE pattern of variability and on its long-term trend remains elusive. Here, we show that from 1979 to 2022, the winter BKS SIC and WACE association is most prominent and statistically significant for the variability at the sub-decadal time scale for 5 to 6 years. We also show the critical role of the multi-decadal trend in the principal component of the WACE mode of variability for explaining the overall Eurasian winter temperature trend over the same period. Furthermore, a large multi-model ensemble of atmosphere-only experiments from 1979 to 2014, with and without the observed Arctic SIC forcing, suggests that the BKS SIC variations induce this observed sub-decadal variability and the multi-decadal trend in the WACE. Additionally, we analyse the model simulated first or the leading EOF mode of Eurasian winter SAT variability, which in observations, closely relates to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find a weaker association of this mode to AO and a statistically significant positive trend in our ensemble simulation, opposite to that found in observation. This contrasting nature reflects excessive hemispheric warming in the models, partly contributed by the modelled Arctic Sea ice loss.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 55%

Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern

Ghosh,

Manzini,

Gao

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Figure 3 displays the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies regressed upon the normalized V300-PC2 series. In association with the positive phase of the V300-PC2 series over the mid-latitudes of Eurasia, the positive SLP anomalies occupied broad regions extending from the Arctic to the western Siberian plateau, implying a westward shift of the Siberian high as indicated by Sun et al (2021). These were collocated with an enhanced pressure over northern North America (Fig.…”

Section: Observed V300-eof Modes and Tropospheric And Stratospheric V...mentioning

confidence: 81%

Modulation of backflow variability on the coherent changes in the Eurasian and North American winter temperatures and weakness in the CMIP6 Models

Sun

Shi

Lu³

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The synchronization of winter temperature anomalies between Eurasia and North America was observed over northern Eurasia and North America at an inter-annual time scale. We found that this was associated with variations in the second leading mode of the winter atmospheric background flow (i.e., the 300 hPa meridional wind; V300-EOF2) over the North Atlantic-Arctic Oceans, and the surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies exhibited coherent changes over Eurasia and North America. The results suggested that this mode modulates the large-scale Rossby wave propagating across the mid-high latitude of the Eurasian and North American continents, and this also interferes with the climatological quasi-stationary wavenumber-2 to affect the stratosphere. In the positive phase of the V300-EOF2, the coordinated variation in the tropospheric and low stratospheric circulation facilitated the southward intrusion of cold air into Eurasia and North America simultaneously. We also evaluated the performance of the high top (HT) and low top (LT) of the CMIP6 models to capture the variation associated with this mode. The multi-model ensemble mean (MME) of the HT and LT models generally captured the spatial structures of the mode and reproduced coherent changes in the SATs over mid-latitude Eurasia and North America. The MME of the HT models showed a better performance than the LT models for simulating temperature variations over Eurasia, while they demonstrated poor performance over North America. There was a large spread in the simulation performance among the individual models, indicating great uncertainty in simulating SATs over the two regions. This result was primarily attributed to the different abilities to reproduce the tropospheric and stratospheric variations that affect the SATs. We also identified that the HT models did not substantively improve the simulation ability to represent the observed linear interference between the anomalous wave-2 and the climatological stationary wave-2 than that of the LT models, although a full stratosphere was included. These results have implications for further evaluation of the predictability of the backflow variability and concomitant Eurasian-North American cooling in the S2S project.

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“…Figure 3 shows the sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies regressed upon the normalized V300-PC2 series. In association with the positive phase of the V300-PC2 mode over the midlatitudes of Eurasia, the positive SLP anomalies occupy broad regions extending from the Arctic to the western Siberian plateau, implying a westward shift of the Siberian high as indicated by Sun et al (2021). These are also collocated with an enhanced surface pressure over northern North America (Figure 3a).…”

Section: Observed V300-eof Modes and Their Connection With Tropospher...mentioning

confidence: 87%

Upper‐level wind mode over the North Atlantic‐Arctic Ocean leading to coherent variations of Eurasian and North American winter temperatures and weakness in the CMIP6 models

Sun,

Shi,

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study discovers that the interannual synchronization of winter temperature anomalies between northern Eurasia and North America is closely related to variation in the second leading mode of the 300 hPa meridional wind anomalies (i.e., V300‐EOF2) over the North Atlantic‐Arctic Ocean. The V300‐EOF2 mode modulates the large‐scale Rossby wave propagating across the mid‐high latitudes of the Eurasian and North American continents at the mid‐high level of troposphere, and it also interferes with the climatological quasi‐stationary wavenumber‐2 to affect the stratosphere circulation, which facilitates the southward intrusion of cold air into Eurasia and North America simultaneously. This study also evaluated whether the CMIP6 high‐top (HT) models could more accurately represent the V300‐EOF2 mode and the associated modulation mechanism on synchronized temperature variation between Eurasia and North America than the low‐top (LT) models. The results demonstrate that although the multi‐model ensemble means (MME) of both the HT and LT models can reproduce the V300‐EOF mode, they all underestimate its modulation mechanism on atmospheric circulation and coherent temperature changes over mid‐latitude Eurasia and North America, with minor differences in simulation skill capability. Most importantly, although containing a full stratosphere, the HT models do not significantly improve their simulation ability to depict the observed linear interference between the anomalous wave‐2 and the climatological stationary wave‐2 compared to the LT models. Therefore, comparing to the LT models, the CMIP6 HT models present no clear advantages in reproducing the V300‐EOF2 mode and its associated low‐frequency climate anomalies. These results also have implications for the evaluation of the predictability of concomitant Eurasian‐North American cooling in the Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Prediction Project.

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Diverse Inter-Annual Variations of Winter Siberian High and Link With Eurasian Snow in Observation and BCC-CSM2-MR Coupled Model Simulation

Cited by 16 publications

References 76 publications

Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern

Observed winter Barents Kara Sea ice variations induce prominent sub-decadal variability and a multi-decadal trend in the Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia pattern

Modulation of backflow variability on the coherent changes in the Eurasian and North American winter temperatures and weakness in the CMIP6 Models

Upper‐level wind mode over the North Atlantic‐Arctic Ocean leading to coherent variations of Eurasian and North American winter temperatures and weakness in the CMIP6 models

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