DIVA: an iterative method for building modular integrated models

Abstract

Abstract. Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledge from the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatible terminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the start of the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient. The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answer can be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisation and integration. Along those lines of thought a method for building modular integrated models was developed within the EU project DINAS-COAST and applied to construct a first model, which assesses the vulnerability of the worlds coasts to climate change and sea-level-rise. The method focuses on the development of a common language and offers domain experts an intuitive interface to code their knowledge in form of modules. However, instead of rigorously defining interfaces between the subsystems at the projects beginning, an iterative model development process is defined and tools to facilitate communication and collaboration are provided. This flexible approach has the advantage that increased understanding about subsystem interactions, gained during the projects lifetime, can immediately be reflected in the model.

Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

“…They can be categorized into: index-based methods that include several variants of the coastal vulnerability index (CVI; Gornitz, 1990;Gornitz, 1991;Gornitz et al, 1993); GIS-based decision support systems that support decision makers in a sustainable management of natural resources and in the definition of mitigation and adaptation measures (Mocenni et al, 2009;Schirmer et al, 2003); methods based on dynamic computer models that allow to integrate the time dimension in the analysis and mapping of vulnerability and risks of coastal systems to climate change (Hinkel, 2005;Hinkel et al, 2010;Mcleod et al, 2010;Kenny et al, 2000;Warrick et al, 2005;Warrick, 2009;Hsu et al, 2006;Henrotte, 2008;Engelen et al, 1998;Mokrech et al, 2009).…”

Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA

“…diva-model.net; DINAS- COAST Consortium 2006). The model consists of a number of modules that represent coastal subsystems developed by experts from various engineering, natural and social science disciplines (Hinkel 2005;Hinkel and Klein 2009). …”

Systematic Sensitivity Analysis of the Full Economic Impacts of Sea Level Rise

“…The DIVA model incorporates coastal erosion, coastal flooding, wetland changes and salinity intrusion. Additionally, adaptation to SLR is taken into account in terms of raising dikes and nourishing shores and beaches (Hinkel 2005;Hinkel et al 2013Hinkel et al , 2014Vafeidis et al 2008).…”

“…In models such as the dynamic interactive vulnerability assessment (DIVA) model (Hinkel 2005;Hinkel et al 2013Hinkel et al , 2014Vafeidis et al 2008), land loss is estimated as a function of SLR. Based on the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, the expected mean SLR in cm by the year 2100 is 74 cm with a range of [52,98] relative to the mean over 1986-2005(IPCC 2013). This range of almost half a meter reflects the level of uncertainty regarding the estimates of SLR.…”