Diurnal interaction between urban expansion, climate change and adaptation in US cities

Krayenhoff, E. Scott; Moustaoui, Mohamed; Broadbent, Ashley M.; Gupta, Vishal; Georgescu, Matei

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0320-9

Cited by 242 publications

(171 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…These limitations may be addressed with the use of city land cover and building projections, in turn highlighting the need for engagement with policymakers. Krayenhoff et al () offers a recent example of this approach, finding a geographically varying nonlinear relationship between urban expansion and global climate change signals throughout the United States. Techniques such as cellular automata models of urban land cover sprawl (Clarke et al , ; Li and Yeh, ; Mitsova et al , ) may be incorporated into high‐resolution simulations, as well as projections of building technology change to account for increases in cooling technology efficiency.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐resolution projections of extreme heat in New York City

Ortiz

González

Horton

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Heat waves impact a wide array of human activities, including health, cooling energy demand, and infrastructure. Cities amplify many of these impacts by concentrating large populations and critical infrastructure in relatively small areas. In addition, heat waves are expected to become longer, more intense, and more frequent in North America. Here, we evaluate combined climate and urban surface impacts on localized heat wave metrics throughout the 21st century across two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for New York City (NYC), which houses the largest urban population in the United States. We account for local biases due to urban surfaces via bias correcting with observed records and urbanized 1‐km resolution dynamical downscaling simulations across selected time periods (2045–2049 and 2095–2099). Analysis of statistically downscaled global model output shows underestimation of uncorrected summer daily maximum temperatures, leading to lower heat wave intensity and duration projections. High‐resolution dynamical downscaling simulations reveal strong dependency of changes in event duration and intensity on geographical location and urban density. Event intensity changes are expected to be highest closer to the coast, where afternoon sea‐breezes have traditionally mitigated summer high temperatures. Meanwhile, event duration anomaly is largest over Manhattan, where the urban canopy is denser and taller.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐resolution projections of extreme heat in New York City

Ortiz

González

Horton

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Urban land expansion is associated with urban population growth, economic development, and other regional or local factors such as land use policies, capital flows, and transportation costs (Bren d'Amour et al, 2017;Seto et al, 2011). This process significantly modifies the surface properties such as albedo and roughness, increases the emissions of aerosols and anthropogenic heat, and reduces surface wind, thus exerting considerable impacts on regional climate change (Cao et al, 2018;He et al, 2014;Krayenhoff et al, 2018;Seto et al, 2011). Urbanization enhances sensible heat flux and soil heat flux at the expense of latent heat flux, thereby leading to the well-known urban heat island (UHI) effect (Jones et al, 2008;Luo & Lau, 2018;Yao et al, 2019;Zhou et al, 2004), with higher temperature in the urban core area than the surrounding rural areas (Kalnay & Cai, 2003;Oke, 1982;Zhao et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban Expansion and Drying Climate in an Urban Agglomeration of East China

Luo

Lau

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

114

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Urban land expansion is one of the most conspicuous aspects of urbanization and has profound impacts on regional climate change. Most studies, however, focus on its impacts on surface temperature, and possible effects on atmospheric humidity are less known. By examining the humidity changes in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration of China during 1961–2014, we find a prominent urban dry island (UDI) effect in this urban agglomeration, as characterized by reduced humidity and increased vapor pressure deficit in the urban core area. In the past decades, the UDI effect has been significantly intensified by rapid urban land expansion. Urban expansion contributes to around half of the decrease in atmospheric humidity and the increase in vapor pressure deficit in urban areas. These effects are particularly stronger in wet hot summer and relatively weaker in cold dry winter. We suggest that the UDI effect should be considered in future urban planning, landscape design, and climate change assessment and mitigation.

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“…Moreover, WRF simulations include dynamic urban growth based on the A2 2060 projection obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS, v1.3.2). Further information on the regional climate model simulations, associated WRF calibration and extensive evaluation can be found in (Krayenhoff et al 2018).…”

Section: Building Archetypesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The reason is that future weather data is often obtained using the 'morphing' approach, which neglects the impacts of urban induced warming, urban morphology, and assumes the same hourly profiles as the historic records (Sailor 2014). Moreover, many of these studies are limited to snapshot years, whereas recorded and projected data suggest that seasonal temperature variations between consecutive years could be of similar magnitude to long term climate trends (Krayenhoff et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Passive survivability of buildings under changing urban climates across eight US cities

Baniassadi

Sailor

Krayenhoff

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In the US, more than 80% of fatal cases of heat exposure are reported in urban areas. Notably, indoor exposure is implicated in nearly half of such cases, and lack of functioning air conditioning (AC) is the predominant cause of overheating. For residents with limited capacity to purchase, maintain, and operate an AC system, or during summertime power outages, the ability of buildings to maintain safe thermal conditions without mechanical cooling is the primary protective factor against heat. In this paper, we use whole-building energy simulations to compare indoor air temperature inside archetypical single-family residential buildings without AC at the start and middle of the century in eight US cities. We ran the models using hourly output from 10 year regional climate simulations that explicitly include heating from mid-century projections of urban development and climate change under a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario. Moreover, to identify the impacts from evolving construction practices, we compare different versions of building energy standards. Our analysis shows that summertime overheat time may increase by up to 25% by the middle of century. Moreover, we find that, while newer building energy codes reduce thermal comfort under moderate outdoor weather, they perform better under extreme heat.

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Diurnal interaction between urban expansion, climate change and adaptation in US cities

Cited by 242 publications

References 36 publications

High‐resolution projections of extreme heat in New York City

High‐resolution projections of extreme heat in New York City

Urban Expansion and Drying Climate in an Urban Agglomeration of East China

Passive survivability of buildings under changing urban climates across eight US cities

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