District-wide drought climatology of the southwest monsoon season over India based on standardized precipitation index (SPI)

Pai, D. S.; Sridhar, Latha; Guhathakurta, Pulak; Hatwar, H. R.

doi:10.1007/s11069-011-9867-8

Cited by 136 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Table 2 gives the number of years in which the seasonal rainfall was in each of the categories. Marathwada is a drought-prone region 22,23 and during the 145 years, there have been 22 droughts implying a probability of occurrence of 15%. Thus the chance of a drought in this drought-prone area is close to 1 in 6 to 7 years.…”

Section: Variation Of the Seasonal Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monsoon Variability, the 2015 Marathwada Drought and Rainfed Agriculture

2016

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The impact of the drought of the summer monsoon of 2015 has been particularly large in the Marathwada region of Maharashtra which is now facing unprecedented water scarcity and more than one thousand farmers have committed suicide. Substantial losses in the production of important crops such as pulses have been reported in Maharashtra. Naturally, the Marathwada drought has been extensively covered in the print and electronic media. The large impact has been attributed to exceptionally large deficit in rainfall by some journalists and politicians, to two successive droughts in 2014 and 2015 by some and some have considered the drought to be a manifestation of climate change. In this article, we present an analysis of the Marathwada monsoon rainfall from 1871 onwards and show that the quantum of deficit rainfall in 2015 as well as the occurrence of two successive droughts is within the observed variability of the Marathwada rainfall and the 2015 monsoon rainfall also cannot be considered as a manifestation of climate change. Thus the large impact of 2015 is a reflection of poor management of water resources and agriculture, despite the long experience of rainfall variability. We show that the prediction by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) of a high chance of below normal rainfall or a drought on the all-India scale and the occurrence of El Niño could have been used to anticipate large deficiency in Marathwada rainfall. We suggest that the problem of lack of progress in the production of rainfed crops such as pulses has to be addressed by using the rich rainfall data sets in the country to generate information which can be used by farmers and agricultural scientists to identify strategies, which are tailored to the entire spectrum of rainfall variability experienced. Towards this end an interactive software 'RAINFO' has been developed at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology ((IITM), Pune to provide location-specific information derived from the IMD data, on the desired facets of rainfall variability.

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Section: Variation Of the Seasonal Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monsoon Variability, the 2015 Marathwada Drought and Rainfed Agriculture

2016

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“…The standardized precipitation index (SPI), based only on precipitation, is widely applied for study of drought events and drought classes (Hayes et al 1999;Pai et al 2011). The drought analysis conducted for the EFTP focuses only on the influence of rainfall and not on the influence of evapotranspiration.…”

Section: The Standardized Precipitation Index Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The severity of drought and precipitation prediction in the eastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau

Zhao

Liao³

et al. 2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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The trend, severity, and duration of drought in the eastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau (EFTP) have been investigated using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) trend test, standardized precipitation index (SPI), and generalized extreme value (GEV), using data obtained from 438 rainfall stations and reanalysis datasets for the period 1961-2014. A recent drought trend is evident from a decrease in rainfall, with this mainly occurring on the eastern slope of the TP (< 3000-m elevation); this is attributed to downward air flows over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) induced by TP heating. Recent droughts have also been more severe, with these again mostly occurring on the eastern slopes. The duration of drought illustrates that extreme droughts are becoming more frequent. The study also predicted summer precipitation, due to its crucial role in drought research in the EFTP. Results show that the preceding May-June-July (MJJ) averaged column-integrated meridional water vapor transport (MWVT) from the South China Sea (SCS), Philippine Sea, and tropical western Pacific is a vital predictor of summer precipitation in the EFTP. A partial least squares (PLS) regression prediction model is therefore constructed, using the leading PLS components of preceding MJJ-averaged columnintegrated MWVT. Compared to the observed summer rainfall, the PLS prediction model performs an excellent reconstructed skill with a correlation of 0.81 and exhibits a promising forecast skill with a correlation of 0.67 (2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014). Results suggest that southerly moisture transport in early summer would help prevent summer drought in the EFTP.

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“…It is listed as a key indicator for global drought monitoring [62,63]; and has been used for drought monitoring in the United States and India [64][65][66]. It was used in this research because it is based solely on precipitation-and therefore is the drought index of most use in the instrument-poor situation that describes most climate stations in Cambodia.…”

Section: Drought Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Monitoring for Rice Production in Cambodia

Chhinh

Millington

2015

Climate

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Rice production underpins the national economy and the most rural livelihoods in Cambodia, but it is negatively impacted by repeated droughts. The research reported on in this paper focuses on relationships between drought occurrences in Cambodia's most drought-prone province (Kampong Speu) and (i) damage to the annual rice harvest between 1994 and 2011, and (ii) the Niño 3.4 index. Droughts were identified using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). In seven of the years between 1994 and 2006 droughts damaged >1000 ha of rice in the Kampong Speu province. Furthermore, in 11 years >200 ha of rice were damaged. A critical success index of 0.66 obtained for an analysis of SPI-defined drought and area rice damage in the province indicates a strong statistical relationship. A statistically significant correlation (r = −0.455) was achieved between Niño 3.4 and 12-month SPI values lagged by three months, this indicates the importance of ENSO linkages in explaining drought in this region. Late season droughts lead to greater rice damage than early-and mid-season droughts.

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District-wide drought climatology of the southwest monsoon season over India based on standardized precipitation index (SPI)

Cited by 136 publications

References 19 publications

Monsoon Variability, the 2015 Marathwada Drought and Rainfed Agriculture

Monsoon Variability, the 2015 Marathwada Drought and Rainfed Agriculture

The severity of drought and precipitation prediction in the eastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau

Drought Monitoring for Rice Production in Cambodia

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