Distributions of long dry spells in the iberian peninsula, years 1951–1990

Lana, X.; Martínez, M. D.; Burgueño, A.; Serra, C.; Martín‐Vide, Javier; Gómez, L.

doi:10.1002/joc.1354

Cited by 67 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…These data series are available at http://eca.knmi.nl. Some of the Spanish data come from the Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (Spanish Ministry of Environment) and similar homogeneity and quality controls were applied (Lana et al, 2006). Figure 1a depicts the spatial distribution of these rain gauges.…”

Section: Databasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main objective is to analyse spatial and temporal fractal patterns of the dry spell regime in Europe, which cannot be described by means of statistical tools, as those used, for instance, by Lana et al (2004Lana et al ( , 2006, Burgueño et al (2005), Martínez et al (2007b), who made use of statistical distributions, return periods and spectral analyses for studying the dry spell behaviour of NE Spain and the Iberian Peninsula.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes

Lana

Martínez²,

Serra

et al. 2010

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. The complex spatial and temporal characteristics of European dry spell lengths, DSL, (sequences of consecutive days with rainfall amount below a certain threshold) and their randomness and predictive instability are analysed from daily pluviometric series recorded at 267 rain gauges along the second half of the 20th century. DSL are obtained by considering four thresholds, R 0 , of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. A proper quantification of the complexity, randomness and predictive instability of the different DSL regimes in Europe is achieved on the basis of fractal analyses and dynamic system theory, including the reconstruction theorem. First, the concept of lacunarity is applied to the series of daily rainfall, and the lacunarity curves are well fitted to Cantor and random Cantor sets. Second, the rescaled analysis reveals that randomness, persistence and anti-persistence are present on the European DSL series. Third, the complexity of the physical process governing the DSL series is quantified by the minimum number of nonlinear equations determined by the correlation dimension. And fourth, the loss of memory of the physical process, which is one of the reasons for the complex predictability, is characterized by the values of the Kolmogorov entropy, and the predictive instability is directly associated with positive Lyapunov exponents. In this way, new bases for a better prediction of DSLs in Europe, sometimes leading to drought episodes, are established. Concretely, three predictive strategies are proposed in Sect. 5. It is worth mentioning that the spatial distribution of all fractal parameters does not solely depend on latitude and longitude but also reflects the effects of orography, continental climate or vicinity to the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and Mediterranean Sea.

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Section: Databasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes

Lana

Martínez²,

Serra

et al. 2010

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

Self Cite

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“…These rain gauges were carefully chosen on account of their excellent recording continuity and they have recently been used in statistical modelling of dry spell distribution (Lana et al, 2006). When a minor lack of data is detected, dry spells including days with missing data are discarded for computations.…”

Section: Collection Of Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Lacunarity, predictability and predictive instability of the daily pluviometric regime in the Iberian Peninsula

Martínez¹,

Lana

Burgueño³

et al. 2007

Nonlin. Processes Geophys.

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Abstract. The complexity of the daily pluviometric regime of the Iberian Peninsula is analysed from the point of view of its lacunarity, predictability and predictive instability. The database consists of daily pluviometric records obtained from 43 rain gauges in Spain and Portugal for the period . Five different series are generated for every rain gauge. The first series is constituted by the consecutive daily amounts. The other four consist of dry spell lengths with respect to daily amount thresholds of 0.1, 1.0, 5.0 and 10.0 mm/day. A dry spell length is defined as the number of consecutive days with rainfall amounts below one of these thresholds. The empirical lacunarity for every rain gauge is well reproduced by two power laws, the exponents varying notably from one gauge to another. The spatial distribution of the lacunarity is characterised by a north to south or southeast gradient, thus suggesting that this parameter can be a useful tool to distinguish between different pluviometric regimes. The predictability of the five series is quantified by means of the rescaled analysis and the interpretation of the Hurst exponent. Its patterns reveal that most part of the Iberian Peninsula shows signs of persistence for the daily rainfall and the dry spell series, although persistence is only clearly manifested in some small domains. The instability of possible predictive algorithms is analysed through the Lyapunov exponents. They are only computed for the series of daily amounts and for dry lengths respect to the threshold level of 0.1 mm/day due to the short number of dry spells for larger threshold levels. The series of daily amounts depict the highest instability along the Mediterranean coast. The series of dry spells show an increasing instability from NE to SW Spain, with a relevant nucleus of high Lyapunov values in the south-western Atlantic coast. As a summary, lacunarity and Hurst and Lyapunov exponents depict a relevant spatial variation, which is in agreement with well known patterns of Correspondence to: X. Lana (francisco.javier.lana@upc.edu) the pluviometric regime, such as annual amount spatial distribution and return periods of dry spells.

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“…The same precipitation total and number of dry days will have quite different effects when the dry days are homogenously distributed in time or concentrated in a few dry spells (Zolina et al 2013). Therefore, dry spells form a useful index being helpful for a better and more comprehensive understanding of droughts and has also been widely used all over the world (Cindric et al 2010;Deni and Jemain 2009;Deni et al 2010;Lana et al 2006;Lana et al 2008;Modarres 2010;Schmidli and Frei 2005;Vargas et al 2011). Several researches about dry spells have also been conducted over China (Gong et al 2005;Lei and Duan 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prolonged dry episodes over Northeast China during the period 1961–2012

Kong

Zheng

et al. 2014

Theor Appl Climatol

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Spatial and temporal changes of prolonged dry episodes, defined by the 90th percentile of consecutive norain days (<1 mm/day) in both the wet (May to September) and dry seasons (October to April), were investigated using daily precipitation data of 72 meteorological stations over Northeast China from 1961 to 2012. Increasing trends are detected for the prolonged dry episode duration at 94.4 % of the stations in the wet season, and 26.5 % of these increasing trends are statistically significant at the 5 % level. In the dry season, 77.8 % of the stations show decreasing trends, and 32.1 % of these decreasing trends are significant at the 5 % level. The drought trend in the wet season detected by the prolonged dry episode duration is more prominent than that detected by the total number of no-rain days or the Standard Precipitation Index. The ratio between the prolonged dry episode duration and total number of no-rain days exhibits a significant (at the 5 % level) increase of 8.3 %/52 years in the wet season and a significant decrease (at the 5 % level) of nearly 11 %/52 years. An overall dry (before 1980), wet (during the 1980s), and dry (after 1990) tendency in the wet season is detected at the regional average level. Inter-annual variations of the prolonged dry episode duration at individual stations show four patterns. The most predominant pattern is similar to the regional average condition but with larger amplitude and mainly occurring over the northern part of Northeast China. Our study provides a more in-depth case to monitor droughts caused by extremely long dry spells and supports studies over other regions.

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Distributions of long dry spells in the iberian peninsula, years 1951–1990

Cited by 67 publications

References 31 publications

Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes

Complex behaviour and predictability of the European dry spell regimes

Lacunarity, predictability and predictive instability of the daily pluviometric regime in the Iberian Peninsula

Prolonged dry episodes over Northeast China during the period 1961–2012

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