Distributional modeling of Mantophasmatodea (Insecta: Notoptera): a preliminary application and the need for future sampling

Silva, Daniel P.; Spigoloni, Zander Augusto; Camargos, Lucas M.; Andrade, André Felipe Alves de; Marco, Paulo De; Engel, Michael S.

doi:10.1007/s13127-015-0250-6

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…Species distribution models (SDMs), subsequently, attempt to recreate that range based on observation of the species (some also use absence of the species) and environmental conditions [23]. Traditionally, SDMs have been employed by ecologists through research on predicting areas of rare species occurrence [24], invasive species [25], and potential for invasive species [26]. More recently, land change scientists have used SDMs to predict agricultural production potential and expected crop response to climate change [27,28].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mid- and End-of-the-Century Estimation of Agricultural Suitability of California’s Specialty Crops

Granco,

He,

Lentz

et al. 2023

Land

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Specialty crops with long economic life cycles have lower adaptability and flexibility to climate change, making long-term planning crucial. This study examines the impact of climate change on almond, citrus, pistachio, and walnut production in California, using a machine learning approach to estimate crop suitability under current and future environmental conditions. We used recent satellite-observed cropland data to generate an occurrence dataset for these crops. Ecological data including bioclimatic variables derived from global circulation models developed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and surface variables were used to model suitability. The bioclimatic variables relating to temperature and precipitation had the largest effect on each crop’s suitability estimation. The results indicate that suitable areas for almonds, citrus, and walnuts will change significantly within 20 years due to climatic change, and the change will be even greater by the end of the century, indicating a potential loss of 94% of the current suitable area. The results for pistachios indicate change in the spatial distribution of suitable area but the total area is predicted to remain near the current suitable area. Policymakers, researchers, and farmers must work together to develop proactive adaptation strategies to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on specialty crop production. The application of a species distribution model for agriculture suitability provides critical information for future work on adaptation to climate change, identifying areas to target for further analysis.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mid- and End-of-the-Century Estimation of Agricultural Suitability of California’s Specialty Crops

Granco,

He,

Lentz

et al. 2023

Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Representations of SDMs show the potential geographic distribution range of the target species (Colwell & Rangel 2009). This framework (species distribution models) can be a useful source of information for biodiversity conservation policies, because it allows the identification of suitable areas for preserving threatened species and of priority areas for future sampling efforts (Thorn et al 2009;Silva et al 2016;Zhu et al 2016;Gonçalves et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential distribution of riffle beetles (Coleoptera: Elmidae) in southern Brazil

et al. 2018

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The diversity and distribution of freshwater insects in South America is poorly known. Riffle beetles (Elmidae) are aquatic Coleoptera that are considered important indicators of environmental integrity. In Brazil, the country with the largest area and highest richness of Elmidae in the Neotropics, the diversity of the family remains incipient. The southern region of Brazil (state of Rio Grande do Sul) reportedly has a higher richness of stream insects than other regions. In this study, we used species distribution models (SDMs) to estimate the potential distribution of riffle beetle taxa in southern Brazil to identify areas with elevated diversity and suggest priority areas for further investigation towards conservation of Elmidae. As most records of Elmidae were represented by larvae, we predicted the potential distribution firstly of genera and secondly of species within the genus Macrelmis because they were available as adults and allowed identification to species level. These were modelled in relation to environmental factors such as climate, topography, hydrography and land cover. Our results suggested that montane regions and basins located within well-preserved forested regions indicated the highest potential richness of Elmidae. In addition, the areas with higher predicted suitability for the occurrence of genera overlapped with the suitable areas for species of Macrelmis. This result suggests the existence of an elevated ecological similarity among most of the modelled taxa, and that projections for certain Elmidae genera can be useful proxies for estimations of the potential distribution of species in the region. The most important environmental factors related to the predicted distribution of Elmidae taxa were associated with climate (precipitation), landscape (forest cover) and topography. Unsurprisingly, freshwater ecoregions were also suggested as important drivers of Elmidae distribution. Our results indicate that conservation efforts for aquatic insects such as riffle beetles in Brazil should focus on watersheds located in montane and forested regions.

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Current and future ranges of an elusive North American insect using species distribution models

et al. 2019

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Distributional modeling of Mantophasmatodea (Insecta: Notoptera): a preliminary application and the need for future sampling

Cited by 5 publications

References 77 publications

Mid- and End-of-the-Century Estimation of Agricultural Suitability of California’s Specialty Crops

Mid- and End-of-the-Century Estimation of Agricultural Suitability of California’s Specialty Crops

Potential distribution of riffle beetles (Coleoptera: Elmidae) in southern Brazil

Current and future ranges of an elusive North American insect using species distribution models

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