Distribution Patterns of Invasive Buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris) in Mexico Estimated with Climate Niche Models under the Current and Future Climate

Abstract

In Mexico, buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris) was introduced in the middle of the 20th century. Currently, buffelgrass has become an invasive species and has colonized various ecosystems in the country. In addition to its invasive capacity, climate change is a factor that has to be taken into account when considering how to effectively manage and control this species. The climatic niche models (CNM) and their projections for climate change scenarios allow for estimating the extent of biological invasions. Our study aimed to calibrate a CNM for buffelgrass in Mexico under the current climatic conditions and to project the extent of its biological invasion under climate change scenarios. For that, we used MaxEnt to generate the current CNM and to detect if climate change could cause future changes, we then evaluated the distribution patterns over the periods of 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100 for all the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Linear regressions were used to compare the outputs between current and future scenarios. Under the current climate, the CNM estimated that 42.2% of the continental surface of Mexico is highly suitable for buffelgrass. The regression analyses indicated no effects from climate change on the distribution of buffelgrass. Moreover, when the projected period is further in the future, and when the SSPs intensify, the surface of suitable areas for the species increases. These analyses clearly suggest Mexico is facing a biological invasion from buffelgrass, which may represent a threat to native biodiversity.

Assessing risk from invasive alien plants in China: Reconstructing invasion history and estimating distribution patterns of Lolium temulentum and Aegilops tauschii

“…In this study, the total trend in suitable areas for L. temulentum increased from the current climate to future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in the 2030s and 2050s. This result is similar to other studies on the potential geographical distribution of non-invasive plants; for example, suitable areas of Cenchrus ciliaris increased under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5-2050s, and for Spartina anglica the suitable areas increase under SSP5-8.5-2100 in Northern Europe ( Borges et al., 2021 ; Siller-Clavel et al., 2022 ). IPCC has indicated that global warming is likely to increase by 1.5 °C from 2030 to 2052 at the current rate ( IPCC, 2021 ).…”

Generation of new equations to estimate aerial biomass based on morphological variables obtained from grasses in rangelands of Nuevo León, Mexico

“…La especie C. ciliaris tuvo presencia importante en la vegetación de gramíneas observada en el agostadero evaluado, ya que representó el 57 % del número total (n=745) de individuos colectados y su biomasa, calculada tomando en cuenta el número de individuos y el peso promedio de los individuos de la especie mostrados en el Cuadro 1, representó el 80 % de la biomasa registrada en el agostadero evaluado. En las áreas evaluadas en el presente estudio, el pasto C. ciliaris presente se estableció por dispersión natural, dejando en evidencia su alto potencial para establecerse en los agostaderos en México (31) . La especie nativa con mayor presencia en el presente estudio fue Pappophorum bicolor, que tuvo registro de 125 individuos, es decir el 17 % del total, cuya biomasa representó solo 11 % de la biomasa total (Cuadro 1).…”

The Influence of Induced Drought Stress on Germination of Cenchrus ciliaris L. and Cenchrus setigerus Vahl.: Implications for Rangeland Restoration in the Arid Desert Environment of Kuwait

“…Because of these physiognomy traits, these species are valuable native forage plants and have desirable qualities for use on degraded rangelands of these desert regions. In contrast, both species and particularly C. ciliaris have been introduced to different desert regions such as Western Australia [37] , northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States [27,38] as forage plants and for their fodder value. However, it has been reported that C. ciliaris has spread from forage grasslands to adjacent natural desert habitats and invaded native plant communities [39][40][41] .…”