Distribution of peak flow derived from a distribution of rainfall volume and runoff coefficient, and a unit hydrograph

Gottschalk, Lars; Weingartner, Rolf

doi:10.1016/s0022-1694(98)00152-8

Cited by 88 publications

(85 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The importance of this coefficient as a lumped indicator of the runoff generation is also confirmed by the interest of the scientific community in recent research (e.g. Naef, 1993;Gottschalk and Weingartner, 1998;Dos Reis Castro et al, 1999;Cerdan et al, 2004;Merz et al, 2006;Merz and Blöschl, 2009).…”

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confidence: 63%

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On the role of the runoff coefficient in the mapping of rainfall to flood return periods

Viglione

Merz

Blöschl

2009

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. While the correspondence of rainfall return period T P and flood return period T Q is at the heart of the design storm procedure, their relationship is still poorly understood. The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the controls on this relationship examining in particular the effect of the variability of event runoff coefficients. A simplified world with block rainfall and linear catchment response is assumed and a derived flood frequency approach, both in analytical and Monte-Carlo modes, is used. The results indicate that T Q can be much higher than T P of the associated storm. The ratio T Q /T P depends on the average wetness of the system. In a dry system, T Q can be of the order of hundreds of times of T P . In contrast, in a wet system, the maximum flood return period is never more than a few times that of the corresponding storm. This is because a wet system cannot be much worse than it normally is. The presence of a threshold effect in runoff generation related to storm volume reduces the maximum ratio of T Q /T P since it decreases the randomness of the runoff coefficients and increases the probability to be in a wet situation. We also examine the relation between the return periods of the input and the output of the design storm procedure when using a pre-selected runoff coefficient and the question which runoff coefficients produce a flood return period equal to the rainfall return period. For the systems analysed here, this runoff coefficient is always larger than the median of the runoff coefficients that cause the maximum annual floods. It depends on the average wetness of the system and on the return period considered, and its variability is particularly high when a threshold effect in runoff generation is present.

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confidence: 63%

“…Assume the runoff coefficients r c of all the events to be a random variable, modelled according to the beta distribution as in Gottschalk and Weingartner (1998):…”

Section: Continuous Distribution Of Runoff Coefficientsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the role of the runoff coefficient in the mapping of rainfall to flood return periods

Viglione

Merz

Blöschl

2009

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Attempts to analytically derive FF curves through modelling the above sequence of phenomena proved that such a task is difficult due to the mathematical complexities involved. This led to resorting to simplified assumptions (Hebson and Wood 1982, DiazGranados et al 1984, Gottschalk and Weingartner 1998, Iacobellis and Fiorentino 2000, De Michele and Salvadori 2002. Conversely, the numerical approach through Monte Carlo simulation proved more flexible and easily applicable (Loukas 2002, Muzik 2002, Rahman et al 2002, Candela et al 2005.…”

Section: Methodology the Starting Point And The Motivationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of flood frequency after forest fires in small ungauged basins based on uncertain measurements

Nalbantis

Lymperopoulos

2012

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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A methodology is proposed for constructing flood frequency curves before and after forest fires in small ungauged basins. It follows the rainfall-based derived distribution approach using Monte Carlo simulation and allowing for uncertainty in some of the variables involved. The generalized extreme value distribution for annual maximum rainfall is used, combined with the SCS-CN method for estimating rainfall excess, and the rational method for peak flow estimation. For pre-fire conditions, uncertainty in the spatially-averaged curve number is assumed. For post-fire conditions, measurements of peak flood water level at the basin outlet are exploited, while uncertainty is considered both in these measurements and in the hydraulic roughness. Multi-variate Latin Hypercube sampling for correlated variables is used to assess flood quantiles. The methodology is applied to a small basin in Attica, Greece, which was burnt in 2007. Sensitivity tests are carried out regarding the effect of sample size and of the amount of uncertainty involved.Key words flood frequency; forest fires; uncertainty analysis; derived distribution approach; Monte Carlo simulation; Latin Hypercube sampling; generalized extreme value distribution; SCS-CN method; rational method; Torrent Giannoula; Attica, Greece Evaluation de la fréquence des crues après les incendies de forêt basée sur des mesures incertaines dans de petits bassins non jaugés Résumé Une méthodologie est proposée pour construire des courbes de fréquence des crues, avant et après incendies de forêts dans des petits bassins non jaugés. Elle suit l'approche de la distribution dérivée basée sur les pluies en utilisant une simulation Monte Carlo et en autorisant de l'incertitude dans certaines des variables impliquées. La distribution des valeurs extrêmes généralisée est utilisée pour les précipitations maximales annuelles. Elle est combinée avec la méthode SCS-CN pour l'estimation des précipitations en excès, et avec la méthode rationnelle pour l'estimation du débit de pointe. Pour les conditions pré-incendie, on suppose une incertitude dans le "curve number" spatialement moyenné. Pour les conditions post-incendie, les mesures du niveau d'eau de la pointe de crue à l'exutoire du bassin sont exploitées, tandis que l'incertitude est considérée à la fois dans ces mesures et dans la rugosité hydraulique. Un échantillonnage par hypercube latin multi-varié pour variables corrélées est utilisé pour évaluer les quantiles de crues. La méthodologie est appliquée à un petit bassin de l'Attique, en Grèce, qui a brûlé en 2007. Des tests de sensibilité sont réalisés sur l'effet de taille d'échantillon et le niveau d'incertitude en jeu.Mots clefs fréquence des crues; feux de forêt; analyse d'incertitude; approche de la distribution dérivée; simulation de Monte

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“…After this pioneering work, further investigations on this matter have been performed (e.g. Haan and Edwards, 1988;Raines and Valdes, 1993;Kurothe et al, 1997;Gottschalk and Weingartner, 1998;Goel et al, 2000;De Michele and Salvadori, 2002;Franchini et al, 2005). Among others, Sivapalan et al (1990) accounted for the effect of different mechanisms of runoff generation (infiltration excess and saturation excess) while Sivapalan et al (2005) strongly focused on the role of seasonality and used mixed distributions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Runoff thresholds in derived flood frequency distributions

Gioia

Iacobellis

Manfreda

et al. 2008

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.In general, different mechanisms may be identified as responsible of runoff generation during ordinary events or extraordinary events at the basin scale. In a simplified scheme these mechanisms may be represented by different runoff thresholds. In this context, the derived flood frequency model, based on the effect of partial contributing areas on peak flow, proposed by Iacobellis and Fiorentino (2000), was generalized by providing a new formulation of the derived distribution where two runoff components are explicitly considered. The model was tested on a group of basins in Southern Italy characterized by annual maximum flood distributions highly skewed. The application of the proposed model provided good results in terms of descriptive ability. Model parameters were also found to be well correlated with geomorphological basin descriptors. Two different threshold mechanisms, associated respectively to ordinary and extraordinary events, were identified. In fact, we found that ordinary floods are mostly due to rainfall events exceeding a threshold infiltration rate in a small source area, while the so-called outlier events, responsible of the high skewness of flood distributions, are triggered when severe rainfalls exceed a threshold storage in a large portion of the basin.

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Distribution of peak flow derived from a distribution of rainfall volume and runoff coefficient, and a unit hydrograph

Cited by 88 publications

References 15 publications

On the role of the runoff coefficient in the mapping of rainfall to flood return periods

On the role of the runoff coefficient in the mapping of rainfall to flood return periods

Assessment of flood frequency after forest fires in small ungauged basins based on uncertain measurements

Runoff thresholds in derived flood frequency distributions

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