Distribution dynamics of Picea chihuahuana Martínez populations under different climate change scenarios in Mexico

Pinedo-Alvarez, Carmelo; Rentería-Villalobos, Marusia; Aguilar-Soto, Victor; Vega-Mares, José Humberto; Melgoza‐Castillo, Alicia

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00559

Cited by 8 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…By the end of 2019, China established 2750 nature reserves for conservation [48] (among these, there were 489 national nature reserves), covering a total area of approximately 147 million km 2 and representing approximately 14.86% of the land area (http://www. nrchina.org/ (accessed on 5 December 2021)).…”

Section: Data Of Species Climate and National Nature Reservesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Model-Based Assessment for the Ability of National Nature Reserves to Conserve the Picea Species in China under Predicted Climate Conditions

Wang

Wan

2022

Sustainability

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Climate change has a profound impact on the conservation and management of the Picea species, and establishing more nature reserves would be an effective way to conserve wild species in general. Based on a novel computational method using ecological niche modeling to predict the potential geographical distribution of species and a spatial decision support system, the planning process could predict the future distribution of the Picea species and thus select appropriate nature reserves. In this research, we utilized systematic conservation planning to define priority conservation areas for the Picea species in China according to future climate predictions. We hypothesized that: (1) the distribution of the Picea species could be changed under predicted climate conditions in China; (2) the current national nature reserves had sufficient capacity to conserve Picea species under predicted climate conditions in China; and (3) there were still deficiencies in the planned conservation for the Picea species based on predicted climate predictions in China. The results of a spatial analysis showed that the predicted climate would have an impact on the area of distribution of the Picea species. Current nature reserves have a strong potential to conserve the Picea species. However, the conservation of the Picea species in the existing nature reserves was not adequate. There were still many Picea specimens outside the reserve that would be threatened. This research systematically improved the research on the Picea species, and it also scientifically identified the suitable growth and conserved areas of the Picea species in China to provide an empirical basis for the conservation and management of the Picea species.

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Section: Data Of Species Climate and National Nature Reservesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Species have been reacting to environmental changes by adapting, migrating [1], or even becoming extinct [2,3]. In the same way, conservation management has been highly affected by climate change [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Model-Based Assessment for the Ability of National Nature Reserves to Conserve the Picea Species in China under Predicted Climate Conditions

Wang

Wan

2022

Sustainability

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“…3.1.1 (Elith et al 2006). Las variables seleccionadas después de la depuración fueron BIO11, BIO15, BIO18, BIO19, MDE y PRO en formato ASCII (Tabla 1), los criterios de configuración de MaxEnt consistieron en replicado interno por validación cruzada, (1,000 iteraciones), salida tipo logística, (100 réplicas), un umbral de convergencia de 0.0001; en el que se seleccionó 75 % de los registros para entrenar el modelo y 25 % para la validación (Phillips & Dudik 2008).…”

Section: O N L I N E F I R S Tunclassified

Modelado actual y futuro de la idoneidad de hábitat el ahuehuete ( Taxodium mucronatum Ten.): una propuesta para conservación en México

et al. 2021

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Antecedentes: Los modelos para determinar la idoneidad de hábitat de especies arbóreas es actualmente una herramienta geoespacial relevante en la toma de decisiones. Hipótesis: La idoneidad de hábitat actual y futura permite identificar zonas potenciales para conservación del ahuehuete en México. Especie de estudio: Taxodium mucronatum Ten. Sitio de estudio: México. Métodos: Se emplearon registros de ahuehuete y variables climáticas, edafológicas y topográficas, las cuales se procesaron a través del algoritmo MaxEnt; se estimaron superficies actuales y futuras para los escenarios 2050, 2070 con dos criterios de distribución, idoneidad de hábitat y ecosistema actual o ripario y se identificaron áreas potenciales para conservación. Resultados: Se estimó una superficie de 11,217,706.2 y 48,958.5 ha como áreas de idoneidad de hábitat, bajo los dos criterios, respectivamente. La variable más importante en el modelo fue la temperatura promedio del trimestre más frío. El modelo predice una reducción en superficie potencial de 2,989,580.9 ha y de 7,158,9829.96 ha para 2050 y 2070, respectivamente. La reducción estimada en la superficie actual es de 12,415.3 ha y 32,037.1 ha, para 2050 y 2070, respectivamente. Se identificaron diversas zonas para conservación en los estados de Puebla, Guanajuato, Estado de México y Chiapas. Conclusiones: En el presente estudio, se generó una propuesta para selección de sitios y desarrollo de actividades de conservación y restauración del ahuehuete en México, mediante el algoritmo MaxEnt.

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“…Previous studies have proposed systematic decision-making guides for assisted migration ( Pérez et al, 2012 ), have evaluated the need and potential for assisted migration in different taxa through the SDM approach ( Hällfors et al, 2016 ) and have used SDM to delimit current distributions of rare species at local or regional scales ( e.g . McCune, 2016 ), or to evaluate future impacts of climate change, mainly by using climatic variables ( Ledig et al, 2010 ; Pinedo-Alvarez et al, 2019 ). Nevertheless, studies on the potential value of assisted migration for REPS, considering the most complete sets of environmental variables of recognized influence on species distributions ( e.g .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assisted migration and the rare endemic plant species: the case of two endangered Mexican spruces

Mendoza-Maya

Gómez‐Pineda

Sáenz‐Romero

et al. 2022

PeerJ

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Background In the projected climate change scenarios, assisted migration might play an important role in the ex situ conservation of the threatened plant species, by translocate them to similar suitable habitats outside their native distributions. However, it is unclear if such habitats will be available for the Rare Endemic Plant Species (REPS), because of their very restricted habitats. The aims of this study were to perform a population size assessment for the REPS Picea martinezii Patterson and Picea mexicana Martínez, and to evaluate the potential species distributions and their possibilities for assisted migration inside México and worldwide. Methods We performed demographic censuses, field surveys in search for new stands, and developed distribution models for Last Glacial Maximum (22,000 years ago), Middle Holocene (6,000 years ago), current (1961–1990) and future (2050 and 2070) periods, for the whole Mexican territory (considering climatic, soil, geologic and topographic variables) and for all global land areas (based only on climate). Results Our censuses showed populations of 89,266 and 39,059 individuals for P. martinezii and P. mexicana, respectively, including known populations and new stands. Projections for México indicated somewhat larger suitable areas in the past, now restricted to the known populations and new stands, where they will disappear by 2050 in a pessimistic climatic scenario, and scarce marginal areas (p = 0.5–0.79) remaining only for P. martinezii by 2070. Worldwide projections (based only on climate variables) revealed few marginal areas in 2050 only in México for P. martinezii, and several large areas (p ≥ 0.5) for P. mexicana around the world (all outside México), especially on the Himalayas in India and the Chungyang mountains in Taiwan with highly suitable (p ≥ 0.8) climate habitats in current and future (2050) conditions. However, those suitable areas are currently inhabited by other endemic spruces: Picea smithiana (Wall.) Boiss and Picea morrisonicola Hayata, respectively. Conclusions Assisted migration would only be an option for P. martinezii on scarce marginal sites in México, and the possibilities for P. mexicana would be continental and transcontinental translocations. This rises two possible issues for future ex situ conservation programs: the first is related to whether or not consider assisted migration to marginal sites which do not cover the main habitat requirements for the species; the second is related to which species (the local or the foreign) should be prioritized for conservation when suitable habitat is found elsewhere but is inhabited by other endemic species. This highlights the necessity to discuss new policies, guidelines and mechanisms of international cooperation to deal with the expected high species extinction rates, linked to projected climate change.

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Distribution dynamics of Picea chihuahuana Martínez populations under different climate change scenarios in Mexico

Cited by 8 publications

References 35 publications

A Model-Based Assessment for the Ability of National Nature Reserves to Conserve the Picea Species in China under Predicted Climate Conditions

A Model-Based Assessment for the Ability of National Nature Reserves to Conserve the Picea Species in China under Predicted Climate Conditions

Modelado actual y futuro de la idoneidad de hábitat el ahuehuete ( Taxodium mucronatum Ten.): una propuesta para conservación en México

Assisted migration and the rare endemic plant species: the case of two endangered Mexican spruces

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