Distribution‐Based Model Evaluation and Diagnostics: Elicitability, Propriety, and Scoring Rules for Hydrograph Functionals
Jasper A. Vrugt
Abstract:Distribution forecasts P over future quantities or events are routinely made in hydrology but usually traded for a (likelihood‐weighted) mean or median prediction to accommodate error measures or scoring functions such as the mean absolute error or mean squared error. Case in point is the so‐called KG efficiency (KGE) of Gupta et al. (2009, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003) and improvements thereof (Lamontagne et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020wr027101), which have rapidly gained popularit… Show more
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