Distribution and abundance of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) and Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) on Graham, Buckingham, and southern Ellesmere islands, March 2015

Anderson, Mark C.; Kingsley, Michael C. S.

doi:10.7557/2.37.1.4269

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…The predictions of the four models ranged from 1586 (90% CI: 475–5366; Model 1) to 5616 (90% CI: 2202–14,796; Model 2), while the two mean ensemble predictions were 3516 (90% CI: 2009–6617) and 3775 (90% CI: 2206–6923), respectively. Interestingly, data from a subsequent survey by Anderson and Kingsley () in 2015 combined with S. Kaluskar et al’s ( unpublished manuscript ) imputed estimates led to population numbers that were comparable to the lower bounds of the two ensemble predictions.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 90%

Development of a model ensemble to predict Peary caribou populations in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

et al. 2019

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In the field of biological conservation, mathematical modeling has been an indispensable tool to advance our understanding of population dynamics. Modeling rare and endangered species with complex ecophysiological tools can be challenging due to the constraints imposed by data availability. One strategy to overcome the mismatch between what we are trying to learn from a modeling exercise and the available empirical knowledge is to develop statistical models that tend to be more parsimonious. In the present study, we introduce a spatially explicit modeling framework to examine the strength and nature of the relationships of snow density and vegetation abundance with Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) populations. Peary caribou are vital to the livelihood and culture of High Arctic Inuit communities, but changing climatic conditions and anthropogenic disturbances may affect the integrity of this endemic species population. Owing to an estimated decline of over 35% during the last three generations, a recent assessment by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada assigned a Threatened status to Peary caribou in 2015. Recognizing the uncertainty typically associated with the selection of the best subset of explanatory variables and their optimal functional relationship with the response variable, we examined four models across six island complexes (Banks, Axel Heiberg, Melville, Bathurst, Mackenzie King, and Boothia) of the Arctic Archipelago and formulated two ensembles to synthesize their predictions into averaged Peary caribou population distributions. Our analysis showed that an ensemble strategy with region‐specific weights displayed the highest performance and most balanced error across the six island complexes. The causal linkages between snow, vegetation abundance, and Peary caribou did manifest themselves with the models examined, but the noise‐to‐signal ratios of the corresponding regression coefficients were generally high and there were instances where they were not discernible from zero. We also present a sensitivity analysis exercise that elucidates the influence of the observation/imputation errors on the model‐training phase, thereby highlighting the importance of assigning realistic error estimates that will not hamper the identification of important cause–effect relationships. Our study identifies critical augmentations of the available scientific knowledge that necessitate to design the optimal management actions of Peary caribou populations across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 90%

Development of a model ensemble to predict Peary caribou populations in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

et al. 2019

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“…As with the other populations across the archipelago, the abundance of PSB caribou has fluctuated over time. PSB caribou were reported to be at low numbers from the 1940s to early 1970s, with the population recovering to approximately 6,000 animals by 1980 (Gunn et al, 2006) before declining sharply and remaining at present levels of near extirpation (Anderson, 2016;Johnson et al, 2016). In order for the PSB area to be recolonized from WQEI (McFarlane et al, 2014), individuals are required to cross approximately 50-100 km of Barrow Strait.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(COSEWIC, 2015). The most recent surveys addressing the PSB population occurred in , 2006(Anderson, 2016Gunn, Miller, Barry, & Buchan, 2006;Jenkins, Campbell, Hope, Goorts, & McLoughlin, 2011) and recorded only a single caribou among all three surveys. While observations of small numbers of caribou have been reported by local people (Anderson, 2016), this population appears to be near extirpation (Johnson et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prioritization of landscape connectivity for the conservation of Peary caribou

Mallory

Boyce

2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Adequate connectivity between discontinuous habitat patches is crucial for the persistence of metapopulations across space and time. Loss of landscape connectivity is often a direct result of fragmentation caused by human activities but also can be caused indirectly through anthropogenic climate change. Peary caribou ( Rangifer tarandus pearyi ) are widely dispersed across the islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and rely on sea ice to move seasonally between island habitats throughout their range. Seasonal connectivity provided by sea ice is necessary to maintain genetic diversity and to facilitate dispersal and recolonization of areas from which caribou have been extirpated. We used least‐cost path analysis and circuit theory to model connectivity across Peary caribou range, and future climate projections to investigate how this connectivity might be affected by a warming climate. Further, we used measures of current flow centrality to estimate the role of High Arctic islands in maintaining connectivity between Peary caribou populations and to identify and prioritize those islands and linkages most important for conservation. Our results suggest that the Bathurst Island complex plays a critical role in facilitating connectivity between Peary caribou populations. Large islands, including Banks, Victoria, and Ellesmere have limited roles in connecting Peary caribou. Without rigorous greenhouse gas emission reductions our projections indicate that by 2100 all connectivity between the more southern Peary caribou populations will be lost for important spring and early‐winter movement periods. Continued connectivity across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and possibly Peary caribou persistence, ultimately hinges on global commitments to limit climate change. Our research highlights priority areas where, in addition to emission reductions, conservation efforts to maintain connectivity would be most effective.

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“…14.0%, max. 27.9%) recorded in Jameson Land during the 1982-1990period (Aastrup & Mosbech, 2000, the 23.9% recorded in West Greenland (Olesen, 1993), the 22.3% in Labrador (Chubbs & Brazil, 2007)), and the 16%-22% in Ellesmere Island (Anderson & Kingsley, 2017). Although calf percentages for 2000-2015 period are unknown, the low 2016 calf percentage if sustained over several years would cause population decline.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are the Jameson Land muskoxen, Northeast Greenland, in decline?

Gaidet

Daufresne

2019

Ran

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The Jameson Land region contains the largest muskox population in Northeast Greenland. In the period 1980-1990, late winter population size averaged 3,645. A late winter 2000 survey estimated ca. 1,705 muskoxen. Although no further late winter surveys for muskox abundance have occurred since, there have been two summer bird surveys, which recorded incidental observations of muskoxen, i.e., 607 in 2008 and 610 in 2009. We report on muskox observations obtained in a subarea of Jameson Land during the summer 2016 ground survey for birds. Although in the 1982-2000 period this subarea averaged 1,153 ± 346 muskoxen, we observed 138 individuals and a low calf number. The few muskoxen observed and poor calf production suggest population decline. We briefly discuss possible factors that could influence muskox mortality and population abundance. Surveys specific to muskoxen are necessary to ascertain current population abundance, demographics and trend.

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Distribution and abundance of muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) and Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) on Graham, Buckingham, and southern Ellesmere islands, March 2015

Cited by 4 publications

References 8 publications

Development of a model ensemble to predict Peary caribou populations in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Development of a model ensemble to predict Peary caribou populations in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Prioritization of landscape connectivity for the conservation of Peary caribou

Are the Jameson Land muskoxen, Northeast Greenland, in decline?

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