Distributed snow and rock temperature modelling in steep rock walls using Alpine3D

Haberkorn, Anna; Wever, Nander; Hoelzle, Martin; Phillips, Marcia; Kenner, Robert; Bavay, Mathias; Lehning, Michael

doi:10.5194/tc-11-585-2017

Cited by 45 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…Snow is critical for atmosphere and lithosphere coupling 49, 50 , and snow cover has been shown to be a key factor in controlling ground temperatures and determining the development of permafrost 50 . Jin et al .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Zhao

2017

Sci Rep

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Climate warming causes changes in permafrost distribution, which affects the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle and carbon flux in cold regions. In this study, the Surface Frost Number model was applied to examine permafrost distribution on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) under the four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The Kappa statistic was used to evaluate model results by comparing simulations of baseline permafrost distribution (1981–2010) with the existing frozen soil maps. The comparison shows that the Surface Frost Number model is suitable for simulating the general characteristics of permafrost distribution on the QTP. Simulated results suggest that areas of permafrost degradation would be the smallest in the near-term (2011‒2040) with the rates of 17.17%, 18.07%, 12.95% and 15.66% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, respectively. The rate of permafrost degradation would be faster in the mid-term (2041‒2070), especially under the RCP8.5 scenario (about 41.42%). Areas of permafrost degradation would be the largest in the long-term (2071‒2099) relative to baseline conditions, with a modelled 64.31% decrease in permafrost distribution using the RCP8.5 scenario. Our results would help the decision‒making for engineering construction program on the QTP, and support local units in their efforts to adapt climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Zhao

2017

Sci Rep

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“…Smoothing of the temperature curves and disconnection with AT oscillations are identified, since they indicate thick snow accumulation (Hanson and Hoelzle, 2004) which considerably 5 influences the RST (Magnin et al, 2015a;Haberkorn et al, 2015Haberkorn et al, : 2017. Daily RST data usually follows AT oscillations throughout the year (Fig.…”

Section: Calculation Of Model Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite the solar radiation control, which seems to be predominant in the RST patterns from local to continental scales, additional factors may also affect the RST. The snow that accumulate in various thicknesses in steep slopes has been recognized as a significant factor affecting the RST at the local scale, as it attenuate both, the winter cooling (Haberkorn et al, 2017) and the insolation heating in late winter and spring (Magnin et al, 2017b). In Norway, snow and frost coating (mainly due to atmospheric icing, i.e.…”

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confidence: 99%

Permafrost distribution in steep slopes in Norway: measurements, statistical modelling and geomorphological implication

Magnin

Etzelmüller

Westermann

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Permafrost in steep slopes has been increasingly studied since the early 2000s in conjunction with a 15 growing number of rock-slope failures, which likely resulted from permafrost degradation. In Norway, rockslope destabilization is a widespread phenomenon and a major source of risk for the population and infrastructure. However, the lack of precise understanding of the permafrost distribution in steep slopes hinders the assessment of its role in these destabilizations. This study proposes the first nation-wide permafrost probability map for the steep slopes of Norway (CryoWall map). It is based on a multiple linear regression 20 model fitted with multi-annual rock surface temperature (RST) measurements, collected at 25 rock-wall sites, spread across a latitudinal transect (59-69°N) over mainland Norway. The CryoWall map suggests that discontinuous permafrost widely occurs above 1300-1400 and 1600-1700 m a.s.l. in the north and south slopes of southern Norway (59°N), respectively. This lower altitudinal limit decreases in northern Norway (70°N) by about 500±50 m, with more pronounced decrease for south faces, in reason of the insolation patterns largely 25 driven by midnight sun in summer and polar night in winter. Similarly, the mean annual RST differences between north and south faces of similar elevation range around 1.5°C in northern Norway and 3.5°C in southern Norway. The CryoWall map is evaluated against direct ice observations in steep slopes and discussed in the context of former permafrost studies in various types of terrains in Norway. We show that permafrost can occur at much lower elevations in steep rock slopes than in other terrains, especially in north faces. We demonstrate 30 that the CryoWall map is a valuable basis for further investigations related to permafrost in steep slopes in both practical concerns and fundamental science.

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“…Background topography: ASTER GDEM. (Haberkorn et al, 2017). However, snow control on permafrost evolution over long timescales is poorly known.…”

Section: Background and Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling rock wall permafrost degradation in the Mont Blanc massif from the LIA to the end of the 21st century

et al. 2017

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Abstract. High alpine rock wall permafrost is extremely sensitive to climate change. Its degradation has a strong impact on landscape evolution and can trigger rockfalls constituting an increasing threat to socio-economical activities of highly frequented areas; quantitative understanding of permafrost evolution is crucial for such communities. This study investigates the long-term evolution of permafrost in three vertical cross sections of rock wall sites between 3160 and 4300 m above sea level in the Mont Blanc massif, from the Little Ice Age (LIA) steady-state conditions to 2100. Simulations are forced with air temperature time series, including two contrasted air temperature scenarios for the 21st century representing possible lower and upper boundaries of future climate change according to the most recent models and climate change scenarios. The 2-D finite element model accounts for heat conduction and latent heat transfers, and the outputs for the current period (2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) are evaluated against borehole temperature measurements and an electrical resistivity transect: permafrost conditions are remarkably well represented. Over the past two decades, permafrost has disappeared on faces with a southerly aspect up to 3300 m a.s.l. and possibly higher. Warm permafrost (i.e. > −2 • C) has extended up to 3300 and 3850 m a.s.l. in N and S-exposed faces respectively. During the 21st century, warm permafrost is likely to extend at least up to 4300 m a.s.l. on S-exposed rock walls and up to 3850 m a.s.l. depth on the N-exposed faces. In the most pessimistic case, permafrost will disappear on the S-exposed rock walls at a depth of up to 4300 m a.s.l., whereas warm permafrost will extend at a depth of the N faces up to 3850 m a.s.l., but possibly disappearing at such elevation under the influence of a close S face. The results are site specific and extrapolation to other sites is limited by the imbrication of local topographical and transient effects.

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Distributed snow and rock temperature modelling in steep rock walls using Alpine3D

Cited by 45 publications

References 56 publications

Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Simulated responses of permafrost distribution to climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Permafrost distribution in steep slopes in Norway: measurements, statistical modelling and geomorphological implication

Modelling rock wall permafrost degradation in the Mont Blanc massif from the LIA to the end of the 21st century

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