Distance to public transit predicts spatial distribution of dengue virus incidence in Medellín, Colombia

Abstract

Dengue is a growing global threat in some of the world’s most rapidly growing landscapes. Research shows that urbanization and human movement affect the spatial dynamics and magnitude of dengue outbreaks; however, precise effects of urban growth on dengue are not well understood because of a lack of sufficiently fine-scaled data. We analyzed nine years of address-level dengue case data in Medellin, Colombia during a period of public transit expansion. We correlate changes in the spread and magnitude of localized outbreaks to changes in accessibility and usage of public transit. Locations closer to and with a greater utilization of public transit had greater dengue incidence. This relationship was modulated by socioeconomic status; lower socioeconomic status locations experienced stronger effects of public transit accessibility and usage on dengue incidence. Public transit is a vital urban resource, particularly among low socioeconomic populations. These results highlight the importance of public health services concurrent with urban growth.

Importance of Public Transport Networks for Reconciling the Spatial Distribution of Dengue and the Association of Socio-Economic Factors with Dengue Risk in Bangkok, Thailand

“…An improved understanding of socio-economic vulnerabilities could help in disease prevention by directing efforts towards minimizing such attributes through allocation of resources and introducing responsive policies. However, improving our grasp of the role played by transport networks in the spread of pathogens is essential to be able to trace the sources of infection, is a subject of keen interest at all spatial scales, but currently not sufficiently developed [ 63 , 64 , 65 , 66 ].…”

Zika epidemic in Colombia and environmental and sociodemographic contributors: an application of a space-time Markov switching model

“…SIVIGILA data have been used to study the spatio-temporal patterns of Aedes-borne diseases (namely dengue, Zika, and chikungunya) in Colombia. However, most studies focused on a given municipality and/or department 11,[17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25] , and only a few considered the data for the whole country 15,[26][27][28][29][30] . Among these, the studies applying statistical models [26][27][28] used data at the department level.…”

Spatiotemporal Variograms as Neighborhood Definers

“…This range can take many forms, from similarity in genome distance (Eisen at al. 1998; Ben‐Dor et al 1999; Meier‐Kolthoff et al, 2013; Ondov et al, 2016; Rowley and Corces, 2016), topological distance (Cheng et al, 2022; Li, Cheng, et al, 2022; Li, Huang, et al, 2022), spatial distance (Fisher et al 2007; Kretser et al 2008; Cao et al, 2022; Shragai et al, 2022; Roth and Mattes, 2023), or time (Li, Cheng, et al, 2022; Li, Huang, et al, 2022; Seong et al, 2022). The selection, and even definition, of a neighborhood is a complex and oft‐overlooked point.…”