Disruptive Role of Vertical Land Motion in Future Assessments of Climate Change-Driven Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Hazards in the Chesapeake Bay.

Sherpa, Sonam Futi; Shirzaei, M.; Ojha, Chandrakanta

doi:10.1002/essoar.10511192.1

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(48 reference statements)

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“…5e,f), assuming linearly continuous subsidence. This observation is notable because it brings land subsidence to the fore of coastal-hazard discussions and highlights it as a crucial index in coastal disaster resilience design 20 .…”

Section: Land Subsidence Is a Critical Driver Of Coastal Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Generally, higher standard deviation values represent areas of lower precision. The observed lower precision in some pixels may be attributed to lower interferometric phase signal-to-noise ratio caused by surface vegetation, nonlinearity in the rates between the ALOS and Sentinel-1 observation periods owing to aquifer recharge and depletion, a limited number of GNSS stations used for the adjustment and a comparatively higher standard deviation of the GNSS station in the particular regions 20,27,28 . Furthermore, we validate the VLM rates using 756 GNSS stations (US Atlantic coast: 218; US Gulf coast: 157; US Pacific coast: 381) from the Nevada Geodetic Laboratory 62 and Shirzaei et al 48 .…”

Section: Vlm Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Even if climate change mitigation efforts succeed in stabilizing temperature in the future decades, sea levels will continue to rise as a result of the continuing response of oceans to past warming 3,17,18 . Furthermore, coastal cities often experience sinking land (so-called land subsidence), whose compounding effect contributes to relative SLR, exacerbating coastal hazards and risks 2,5,19,20 . In this study, we refer to SLR that incorporates the effects of vertical land motion (VLM) as 'relative SLR', whereas 'geocentric SLR' refers to SLR without VLM.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Disappearing cities on US coasts

Ohenhen,

Shirzaei,

Ojha

et al. 2024

Nature

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The sea level along the US coastlines is projected to rise by 0.25–0.3 m by 2050, increasing the probability of more destructive flooding and inundation in major cities1–3. However, these impacts may be exacerbated by coastal subsidence—the sinking of coastal land areas4—a factor that is often underrepresented in coastal-management policies and long-term urban planning2,5. In this study, we combine high-resolution vertical land motion (that is, raising or lowering of land) and elevation datasets with projections of sea-level rise to quantify the potential inundated areas in 32 major US coastal cities. Here we show that, even when considering the current coastal-defence structures, further land area of between 1,006 and 1,389 km2 is threatened by relative sea-level rise by 2050, posing a threat to a population of 55,000–273,000 people and 31,000–171,000 properties. Our analysis shows that not accounting for spatially variable land subsidence within the cities may lead to inaccurate projections of expected exposure. These potential consequences show the scale of the adaptation challenge, which is not appreciated in most US coastal cities.

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Section: Land Subsidence Is a Critical Driver Of Coastal Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Vlm Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Disappearing cities on US coasts

Ohenhen,

Shirzaei,

Ojha

et al. 2024

Nature

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“…Generally, we note higher χ 2 values in areas with noted higher standard deviations. This could be attributed to several factors: the nonlinearities in surface deformation rates observed between the ALOS-1 and Sentinel-1 periods, the sparse distribution of GNSS stations, and the comparatively higher standard deviation observed at these GNSS stations in these areas ( 76 ). The final VLM utilized in this study is shown in Fig.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Slowly but surely: Exposure of communities and infrastructure to subsidence on the US east coast

Ohenhen,

Shirzaei,

Barnard

2023

PNAS Nexus

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Coastal communities are vulnerable to multihazards, which are exacerbated by land subsidence. On the US east coast, the high density of population and assets amplifies the region's exposure to coastal hazards. We utilized measurements of vertical land motion rates obtained from analysis of radar datasets to evaluate the subsidence-hazard exposure to population, assets, and infrastructure systems/facilities along the US east coast. Here, we show that 2,000 to 74,000 km2 land area, 1.2 to 14 million people, 476,000 to 6.3 million properties, and >50% of infrastructures in major cities such as New York, Baltimore, and Norfolk are exposed to subsidence rates between 1 and 2 mm per year. Additionally, our analysis indicates a notable trend: as subsidence rates increase, the extent of area exposed to these hazards correspondingly decreases. Our analysis has far-reaching implications for community and infrastructure resilience planning, emphasizing the need for a targeted approach in transitioning from reactive to proactive hazard mitigation strategies in the era of climate change.

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Using Geospatial Analysis to Guide Marsh Restoration in Chesapeake Bay and Beyond

Ganju,

Ackerman,

Defne

2023

Estuaries and Coasts

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Coastal managers are facing imminent decisions regarding the fate of coastal wetlands, given ongoing threats to their persistence. There is a need for objective methods to identify which wetland parcels are candidates for restoration, monitoring, protection, or acquisition due to limited resources and restoration techniques. Here, we describe a new spatially comprehensive data set for Chesapeake Bay salt marshes, which includes the unvegetated-vegetated marsh ratio, elevation metrics, and sediment-based lifespan. Spatial aggregation across regions of the Bay shows a trend of increasing deterioration with proximity to the seaward boundary, coherent with conceptual models of coastal landscape response to sea-level rise. On a smaller scale, the signature of deterioration is highly variable within subsections of the Bay: fringing, peninsular, and tidal river marsh complexes each exhibit different spatial patterns with regards to proximity to the seaward edge. We then demonstrate objective methods to use these data for mapping potential management options on to the landscape, and then provide methods to estimate lifespan and potential changes in lifespan in response to restoration actions as well as future sea level rise. We account for actions that aim to increase sediment inventories, revegetate barren areas, restore hydrology, and facilitate salt marsh migration into upland areas. The distillation of robust geospatial data into simple decision-making metrics, as well as the use of those metrics to map decisions on the landscape, represents an important step towards science-based coastal management.

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Disruptive Role of Vertical Land Motion in Future Assessments of Climate Change-Driven Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Hazards in the Chesapeake Bay.

Abstract: Rising sea levels pose significant challenges to coastal communities and ecosystems (IPCC, 2021). The global sea level rose by 0.

Cited by 3 publications

References 32 publications

Disappearing cities on US coasts

Disappearing cities on US coasts

Slowly but surely: Exposure of communities and infrastructure to subsidence on the US east coast

Using Geospatial Analysis to Guide Marsh Restoration in Chesapeake Bay and Beyond

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