Disentangling the predictive validity of high school grades for academic success in university

Abstract

To refine selective admission models, we investigate which measure of prior achievement has the best predictive validity for academic success in university. We compare the predictive validity of three core high school subjects to the predictive validity of high school grade point average (GPA) for academic achievement in a liberal arts university programme. Predictive validity is compared between the Dutch pre-university (VWO) and the International Baccalaureate (IB) diploma. Moreover, we study how final GPA is predicted by prior achievement after students complete their first year. Path models were separately run for VWO (n = 314) and IB (n = 113) graduates. For VWO graduates, high school GPA explained more variance than core subject grades in first-year GPA and final GPA. For IB graduates, we found the opposite. Subsequent path models showed that after students' completion of the first year, final GPA is best predicted by a combination of first-year GPA and high school GPA. Based on our small-scale results, we cautiously challenge the use of high school GPA as the norm for measuring prior achievement. Which measure of prior achievement best predicts academic success in university may depend on the diploma students enter with.

A new academic performance indicator for the first term of first‐year science degrees students at La Laguna University: a predictive model

“…However, the use of the new API yields a better goodness of fit for the obtained models. Indeed, the adjusted R 2 values in the present study range from 0.449 for the Biology degree to 0.727 for the Mathematics degree, which are much higher than the R 2 values obtained in previous research considering factors of merit other than pass/fail outcomes .…”

“…However, the use of the new API yields a better goodness of fit for the obtained models. Indeed, the adjusted R 2 values in the present study range from 0.449 for the Biology degree to 0.727 for the Mathematics degree, which are much higher than the R 2 values obtained in previous research considering factors of merit other than pass/fail outcomes [11,[17][18][19][20][21]. Gender is commonly included in academic performance studies and, generally, female students are shown to outperform male students in primary, middle and high school.…”

In search of valid non-cognitive student selection criteria

“…There are also several important nuances concerning the predictive validity of grades. Grades from previous education lose their predictive validity in later years of study (Sladek et al 2016;Vulperhorst et al 2018). This supports the notion that high school and the first year of the bachelor's program require mostly lower-order knowledge, whereas the third year of the bachelor's program requires higher-order knowledge (Steenman 2018).…”

Differential effect of university entrance score on first-year students’ academic performance in Portugal

“…Nonetheless, McKenzie and Schweitzer (2001, 29) mentioned that 'university entry scores need to be interpreted with caution, as they explain less than half of the variance in GPA'. Vulperhorst et al (2018) compared the predictive validity of high school scores on academic success in university between the Dutch pre-university (314 graduates) and the International Baccalaureate (n ¼ 113 graduates) diploma. According to the authors, the most valid high school score to be used for selection procedures in higher education remains unclear, and it seems to depend on the diploma students enter with.…”