Abstract:Nonlinear fitting algorithms have illuminated the role of weather in human diseases, by allowing for robust tests of mechanistic transmission models, but a lack of data has prevented applications to animal diseases. This is important because classical models that neglect weather predict that there will be a host density threshold, below which epidemic intensity will be slight, but models that include weather predict that this threshold will often be obliterated by weather variability. To test the applicability… Show more
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