Disentangling the Climate-conflict Nexus: Empirical and Theoretical Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Pathways

Scheffran, Jürgen; Brzoska, Michael; Kominek, Jasmin; Link, P.; Schilling, Janpeter

doi:10.5539/res.v4n5p1

Cited by 72 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Although the arrival of water conflict is often signalled years in advance by deteriorating climatic, socio-demographic, economics and governance conditions, the CWCVI variables provide a basis for a fine-grained causality analysis that can lead to socially focused solutions-such as group agricultural cooperatives, conservation of common property resources and conflict resolution, and strengthening of collective adaptation actions. These solutions are consistent with what many consider as suitable vulnerability interventions in a climate-conflict context where vulnerability is experienced (Scheffran et al 2012;Sterzel et al 2014).…”

Section: Prioritising Vulnerability Assessment In Climate and Water Csupporting

confidence: 62%

“…It points to a repertoire of potential explanatory factors (e.g. feelings of insecurity, dependency on Lake water and agriculture, climate-related losses and livelihood diversity) linking climate and (water) conflict (Scheffran et al 2012).…”

Section: Prioritising Vulnerability Assessment In Climate and Water Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Important aspects include, for example, knowing how people's adaptability is shaped by socio-demographic profiles, livelihood strategies and social/political networks. Giving climate vulnerability a security focus (Scheffran et al 2012) and knowing the vulnerability condition in which households and groups are 'powerless' or 'wounded' has huge practical significance (Füssel and Klein 2006).…”

Section: Framing Climate Conflict Vulnerability In Waterlimited Envirmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

2016

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Climate variability is amongst an array of threats facing agricultural livelihoods, with its effects unevenly distributed. With resource conflict being increasingly recognised as one significant outcome of climate variability and change, understanding the underlying drivers that shape differential vulnerabilities in areas that are double-exposed to climate and conflict has great significance. Climate change vulnerability frameworks are rarely applied in water conflict research. This article presents a composite climatewater conflict vulnerability index based on a double exposure framework developed from advances in vulnerability and livelihood assessments. We apply the index to assess how the determinants of vulnerability can be useful in understanding climate variability and water conflict interactions and to establish how knowledge of the climateconflict linked context can shape interventions to reduce vulnerability. We surveyed 240 resource users (farmers, fishermen and pastoralists) in seven villages on the southeastern shores of Lake Chad in the Republic of Chad to collect data on a range of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity variables. Results suggest that pastoralists are more vulnerable in terms of climate-structured aggressive behaviour within a lake-based livelihoods context where all resource user groups show similar levels of exposure to climate variability. Our approach can be used to understand the human and environmental security components of vulnerability to climate change and to explore ways in which conflict-structured climate adaptation and climate-sensitive conflict management strategies can be integrated to reduce the vulnerability of populations in high-risk, conflict-prone environments.

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Section: Prioritising Vulnerability Assessment In Climate and Water Csupporting

confidence: 62%

Section: Prioritising Vulnerability Assessment In Climate and Water Cmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Framing Climate Conflict Vulnerability In Waterlimited Envirmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

2016

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“…This might be one reason for the substantial disagreement on the matter in the literature. Moving beyond purely meteorological indices toward the development of composite indices accounting for vulnerability and exposure to climate change, as well as conflict risk provides a promising way forward to reconcile this debate (48,49).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries

Schleußner

Donges

Donner

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

288

175

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Social and political tensions keep on fueling armed conflicts around the world. Although each conflict is the result of an individual context-specific mixture of interconnected factors, ethnicity appears to play a prominent and almost ubiquitous role in many of them. This overall state of affairs is likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and in particular climate-related natural disasters. Ethnic divides might serve as predetermined conflict lines in case of rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. Here, we hypothesize that climate-related disaster occurrence enhances armed-conflict outbreak risk in ethnically fractionalized countries. Using event coincidence analysis, we test this hypothesis based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980-2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities. Although we do not report evidence that climate-related disasters act as direct triggers of armed conflicts, the disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way. This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world's most conflict-prone regions, including North and Central Africa as well as Central Asia, are both exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides.climate-related natural disasters | ethnic fractionalization | armed conflicts | event coincidence analysis

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“…Indeed, in recent years, the argument that climate change increases the risk of Ôclimate warsÕ and conflict has lost much appeal due to the lack of empirical evidence (see Scheffran et al 2012). …”

Section: Energy Climate and Securitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Rethinking energy, climate and security: a critical analysis of energy security in the US

Nyman

2018

J Int Relat Dev

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Understanding the complicated relationship between energy, climate and security is vital both to the study of international relations and to ensure the continued survival of human civilisation in a world increasingly threatened by environmental change. Climate change is largely caused by burning fossil fuels for energy, but while discussions on the climate consider the role of energy, energy security debates largely overlook climate concerns. This article traces the separation between energy and climate through an analysis of the US energy security discourse and policy. It shows that energy security is constructed continually as national security, which enables very particular policy choices and prioritises it above climate concerns. Thus, in many cases, policies undertaken in the name of energy security contribute directly to climate insecurity. The article argues that the failure to consider securing the climate as inherently linked to energy security is not just problematic, but, given global warming, potentially harmful. Consequently, any approach to dealing with climate change has to begin by rethinking energy security and security more broadly, as national (energy) security politics no longer provides security in any meaningful sense.

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Disentangling the Climate-conflict Nexus: Empirical and Theoretical Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Pathways

Cited by 72 publications

References 58 publications

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

Using a novel climate–water conflict vulnerability index to capture double exposures in Lake Chad

Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries

Rethinking energy, climate and security: a critical analysis of energy security in the US

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