Disease Prevention versus Data Privacy: Using Landcover Maps to Inform Spatial Epidemic Models

Tildesley, Michael J.; Ryan, Sadie J.

doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002723

Cited by 23 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(44 reference statements)

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“…According, synthetic farm locations and sizes were generated from regional-level data for Turkey and for Bulgaria and Greece. on location of pasture) to refine the simulated farm locations, which may improve the robustness of model predictions (Tildesley and Ryan, 2012). One study reported that, provided the model was carefully parameterised to match epidemic behaviour, it was possible to use random farm locations to identify optimal control measures (Tildesley et al, 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scientific Opinion on lumpy skin disease

2015

EFSA Journal

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Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a viral disease of cattle characterised by severe losses, especially in naive animals. LSD is endemic in many African and Asian countries, and it is rapidly spreading throughout the Middle East, including Turkey. LSD is transmitted by mechanical vectors, but direct/indirect transmission may occur. The disease would mainly be transferred to infection-free areas by transport of infected animals and vectors. In the EU, it could only happen through illegal transport of animals. The risk for that depends on the prevalence in the country of origin and the number of animals illegally moved. Based on a model to simulate LSD spread between farms, culling animals with generalised clinical signs seems to be sufficient to contain 90 % of epidemics around the initial site of incursion, but the remaining 10 % of simulated epidemics can spread up to 400 km from the site of introduction by six months after incursion. Whole-herd culling of infected farms substantially reduces the spread of LSD virus, and the more rapidly farms are detected and culled, the greater the magnitude of the reduction is. Only live attenuated vaccines against LSD are available. Homologous vaccines are more effective than sheep pox strain vaccines. The safety of the vaccines should be improved and the development of vaccines for differentiating between infected and vaccinated animals is recommended. Epidemics are not self-limiting when effective vaccination or culling are not applied. Active surveillance, rapid detection and prompt culling of infected herds are effective measures for LSD control. The role of vectors for LSD transmission should be further investigated in both controlled environments and the field. Awareness-raising campaigns for farmers and veterinary staff to promote recognition of LSD should be considered. The cooperation of the EU with neighbouring countries should be encouraged to prevent transboundary disease spread.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scientific Opinion on lumpy skin disease

2015

EFSA Journal

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“…For example, poliovirus is infective at pH values of 3.0, while FMDV is labile below pH values of 6.0 (Racaniello, 2013). Additionally, while both, poliovirus and FMDV have been shown to persist longer when the virus was inoculated onto a faecal media, and conditions in TA B L E 1 This table provides references by grouping for current models used for strategic policy development and studies that were either removed from further analysis or included for the full statistical analysis References Group # of Studies (Andel, 2018;Dórea, Nöremark, Widgren, & Frössling, 2017;East et al, 2016;Gale et al, 2015;Garner & Beckett, 2005;Harvey et al, 2007;Hayama, Yamamoto, Kobayashi, Muroga, & Tsutsui, 2013;Keeling et al, 2001;SANSON et al, 2011;Stevenson et al, 2013;Tildesley & Ryan, 2012;Traulsen, Rave, Teuffert, & Krieter, 2011) Current Policy Models - (Barlow, 1972;Barlow & Donaldson, 1973;Donaldson, 1972;Donaldson & Ferris, 1975) Removed 4 (Alexandersen et al, 2002;Bedson et al, 1927;Bøtner & Belsham, 2012;Donaldson et al, 1970;Eisner & McVicar, 1980;Grzitdnov, 1957;Hyslop, 1965;Kindiakov, 1960;McColl et al, 1995;Nauryzbaev, 1966;Olitsky et al, 1928;Pacheco et al, 2017;Rozov, 1966;Sellers & Parker, 1969;Shil'nikov, 1959;Wagener, 1928) Included 16…”

Section: The Influence Of Environmental Factors On Viral Survivalmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental persistence of foot‐and‐mouth disease virus applied to endemic regions

Mielke

Garabed

2019

Transbound Emerg Dis

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The consequences of foot‐and‐mouth disease impact regional economies and food security through animal mortality and morbidity, trade restrictions and burdens to veterinary infrastructure. Despite efforts to control the disease, some regions, mostly in warmer climates, persistently report disease outbreaks. Consequently, it is necessary to understand how environmental factors influence transmission, of this economically devastating disease. Extensive research covers basic aetiology and transmission potential of livestock and livestock products for foot‐and‐mouth disease virus (FMDV), with a subset evaluating environmental survival. However, this subset, completed in the early to mid‐20th century in Northern Europe and the United States, is not easily generalized to today's endemic locations. This review uncovered 20 studies, to assess current knowledge and analyse the effects of environmental variables on FMDV survival, using a Cox proportional hazards (Coxph) model. However, the dataset is limited, for example pH was included in three studies and only five studies reported both relative humidity (RH) and temperature. After dropping pH from the analysis, our results suggest that temperature alone does not describe FMDV survival; instead, interactions between RH and temperature have broader impacts across various conditions. For instance, FMDV is expected to survive longer during the wet season (survival at day 50 is ~90% at 16°C and 86% RH) versus the dry season (survival at day 50 approaches 0% at 16°C and 37.5% RH) or comparatively in the UK versus the Southwestern United States. Additionally, survival on vegetation topped 70% on day 75 when conditions exceeded 20°C with high RH (86%), drastically higher than the survival on inanimate surfaces at the same temperature and RH (~0%). This is important in tropical regions, where high temperatures can persist throughout the year, but RH varies. Therefore, parameter estimates, for disease modelling and control in endemic areas, require environmental survival data from a wider range of conditions.

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“…There have been long-standing debates over when and how epidemiological models should be used in disease control. Several publications compared and reviewed the suitability of different modelling strategies (Sanson et al, 2011b;Tildesley and Ryan, 2012;Flood et al, 2013;Halasa et al, 2014;Roche et al, 2015).…”

Section: Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Foot-and-Mouth Disease Research Update and Gap Analysis: 2 - Epidemiology, Wildlife and Economics

Knight-Jones

Robinson

Charleston

et al. 2016

Transbound Emerg Dis

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SummaryWe assessed knowledge gaps in foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) research, and in this study, we consider (i) epidemiology, (ii) wildlife and (iii) economics. The study took the form of a literature review (2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) combined with research updates collected in 2014 from 33 institutes from across the world. Findings were used to identify priority areas for future FMD research. During 2011-2015, modelling studies were dominant in the broad field of epidemiology; however, continued efforts are required to develop robust models for use during outbreaks in FMD-free countries, linking epidemiologic and economics models. More guidance is needed for both the evaluation and the setting of targets for vaccine coverage, population immunity and vaccine field efficacy. Similarly, methods for seroprevalence studies need to be improved to obtain more meaningful outputs that allow comparison across studies. To inform control programmes in endemic countries, field trials assessing the effectiveness of vaccination in extensive smallholder systems should be performed to determine whether FMD can be controlled with quality vaccines in settings where implementing effective biosecurity is challenging. Studies need to go beyond measuring only vaccine effects and should extend our knowledge of the impact of FMD and increase our understanding of how to maximize farmer participation in disease control. Where wildlife reservoirs of virus exist, particularly African Buffalo, we need to better understand when and under what circumstances transmission to domestic animals occurs in order to manage this risk appropriately, considering the impact of control measures on livelihoods and wildlife. For settings where FMD eradication is unfeasible, further ground testing of commodity-based trade is recommended. A thorough review of global FMD control programmes, covering successes and failures, would be extremely valuable and could be used to guide other control programmes.

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Disease Prevention versus Data Privacy: Using Landcover Maps to Inform Spatial Epidemic Models

Cited by 23 publications

References 26 publications

Scientific Opinion on lumpy skin disease

Scientific Opinion on lumpy skin disease

Environmental persistence of foot‐and‐mouth disease virus applied to endemic regions

Global Foot-and-Mouth Disease Research Update and Gap Analysis: 2 - Epidemiology, Wildlife and Economics

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