Disease outbreak thresholds emerge from interactions between movement behavior, landscape structure, and epidemiology

White, Lauren A.; Forester, James D.; Craft, Meggan E.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1801383115

Cited by 89 publications

(98 citation statements)

References 46 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…Contrary, the slower and more directed spread of the disease emerging in the case of mechanistic movement decisions ensures continuous sources of both susceptible and infectious hosts (Read and Keeling , Tildesley et al ). In contrast to the homogeneous mixing assumption that all susceptible hosts have the same chance to get infected, in spatially explicit models such as ours the number of susceptible hosts in the focal and surrounding cells is of importance for transmission and persistence (Tildesley et al , White et al ). Due to the fast spread resulting from CRWs, irrespective of the underlying landscape, a considerably higher proportion of cells is simultaneously infected.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moving infections: individual movement decisions drive disease persistence in spatially structured landscapes

Scherer

Radchuk

Franz

et al. 2020

Oikos

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Understanding host–pathogen dynamics requires realistic consideration of transmission events that, in the case of directly transmitted pathogens, result from contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. The corresponding contact rates are usually heterogeneous due to variation in individual movement patterns and the underlying landscape structure. However, in epidemiological models, the roles that explicit host movements and landscape structure play in shaping contact rates are often overlooked. We adapted an established agent‐based model of classical swine fever (CSF) in wild boar Sus scrofa to investigate how explicit representation of landscape heterogeneity and host movement between social groups affects invasion and persistence probabilities. We simulated individual movement both phenomenologically as a correlated random walk (CRW) and mechanistically by representing interactions of the moving individuals with the landscape and host population structure. The effect of landscape structure on the probability of invasion success and disease persistence depended remarkably on the way host movement is simulated and the case fatality ratio associated with the pathogen strain. The persistence probabilities were generally low with CRW which ignores feedbacks to external factors. Although the basic reproduction number R0, a measure of the contagiousness of an infectious disease, was kept constant, these probabilities were up to eight times higher under mechanistic movement rules, especially in heterogeneous landscapes. The increased persistence emerged due to important feedbacks of the directed movement on the spatial variation of host density, contact rates and transmission events to distant areas. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for spatial context and group size structures in eco‐epidemiological models. Our study highlights that the simulation of explicit, mechanistic movement behaviour can reverse predictions of disease persistence in comparison to phenomenological rules such as random walk approaches. This can have severe consequences when predicting the probability of disease persistence and assessing control measures to prevent outbreaks.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moving infections: individual movement decisions drive disease persistence in spatially structured landscapes

Scherer

Radchuk

Franz

et al. 2020

Oikos

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“…In fact, preserving bats' natural habitats and roosting sites (e.g. caves) is the most effective way to avoid human-bat interaction and reduces risk of exposure to pathogens (Patil et al, 2017;Plowright et al, 2011;White et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research trends on bats in China: A twenty-first century review

et al. 2019

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a b s t r a c tIn this century, China has sustained unparalleled economic development, leading to exponentially growing investments in scientific research. Yet, the demand for research-funding is large and tracing the current knowledge is a key step to define priority research topics. In this same span, studies on bats in China have uncovered an overlooked diversity and revealed novelties in bats' evolutionary history and life-history aspects. All this 21st-century knowledge, however, is scattered and a large part is concealed from most of the international scientific community in Mandarin-language articles. Here, we summarize the post-millennium (2000-2017) research on bats in China and point out trends and future directions based on neglected topics, groups, and regions. In addition, we provide an up-to-date list of bat species in China. We retrieved 594 publications related to bats in China, nearly half were written in Mandarin. At least 147 bat species are present in China, which places it among the most bat-rich countries in the world. There was a significant positive trend on the number of publications, from 12.5 annual average in 2000-2005 to 46.5 in recent years, reflecting the Chinese economic-scientific development in this century. We found marked taxonomic and spatial biases. Half of the studies in this century focused on Rhinolophus, Myotis, and Hipposideros, and the southern and eastern provinces were the most studied. Systematic/taxonomy and Ecology were the predominant topics post-millennium, whereas only 10 articles have clear conservation-driven goals. Our review shows that the majority of studies were focused on the least concern, cave-dweller species, and on bat-rich provinces. Future projects should address the effects of human-modified landscapes on bat community to define proper conservation actions. We discuss some priority actions and projects that will help to enhance bat protection in China.

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“…They also concluded that overall disease prevalence typically was lower in more fragmented landscapes, in accordance with our findings for California. It should be noted that the effects of habitat fragmentation on transmission are complicated and dependent on interactions with animal movement behavior and epidemiology (White, Forester, & Craft, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Feline immunodeficiency virus in puma: Estimation of force of infection reveals insights into transmission

Reynolds

Carver

Cunningham

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Determining parameters that govern pathogen transmission (such as the force of infection, FOI), and pathogen impacts on morbidity and mortality, is exceptionally challenging for wildlife. Vital parameters can vary, for example across host populations, between sexes and within an individual's lifetime. Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) is a lentivirus affecting domestic and wild cat species, forming species‐specific viral–host associations. FIV infection is common in populations of puma (Puma concolor), yet uncertainty remains over transmission parameters and the significance of FIV infection for puma mortality. In this study, the age‐specific FOI of FIV in pumas was estimated from prevalence data, and the evidence for disease‐associated mortality was assessed. We fitted candidate models to FIV prevalence data and adopted a maximum likelihood method to estimate parameter values in each model. The models with the best fit were determined to infer the most likely FOI curves. We applied this strategy for female and male pumas from California, Colorado, and Florida. When splitting the data by sex and area, our FOI modeling revealed no evidence of disease‐associated mortality in any population. Both sex and location were found to influence the FOI, which was generally higher for male pumas than for females. For female pumas at all sites, and male pumas from California and Colorado, the FOI did not vary with puma age, implying FIV transmission can happen throughout life; this result supports the idea that transmission can occur from mothers to cubs and also throughout adult life. For Florida males, the FOI was a decreasing function of puma age, indicating an increased risk of infection in the early years, and a decreased risk at older ages. This research provides critical insight into pathogen transmission and impact in a secretive and solitary carnivore. Our findings shed light on the debate on whether FIV causes mortality in wild felids like puma, and our approach may be adopted for other diseases and species. The methodology we present can be used for identifying likely transmission routes of a pathogen and also estimating any disease‐associated mortality, both of which can be difficult to establish for wildlife diseases in particular.

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Disease outbreak thresholds emerge from interactions between movement behavior, landscape structure, and epidemiology

Cited by 89 publications

References 46 publications

Moving infections: individual movement decisions drive disease persistence in spatially structured landscapes

Moving infections: individual movement decisions drive disease persistence in spatially structured landscapes

Research trends on bats in China: A twenty-first century review

Feline immunodeficiency virus in puma: Estimation of force of infection reveals insights into transmission

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