Disease mortality in domesticated animals is predicted by host evolutionary relationships

Farrell, Maxwell J.; Davies, Jonathan

doi:10.1101/438226

Cited by 17 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Their ability to do so is determined by compatibility between viral structures, host cell receptors, and host immunity 6 . Because closely related species share both ecological and immunological traits through identity by descent, phylogeny is a strong predictor of pathogen sharing 17,22 , as well as susceptibility to invasion by new viruses 23,24,25 . In a changing world, these factors should continue to mediate the impact of ecosystem turnover on the mammalian virome.…”

Section: Main Textmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change will drive novel cross-species viral transmission

Carlson

Albery

Merow

et al. 2020

Preprint

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14Between 10,000 and 600,000 species of mammal virus are estimated to have the 15 potential to spread in human populations, but the vast majority are currently cir-16 culating in wildlife, largely undescribed and undetected by disease outbreak surveil-17 lance 1,2,3 . In addition, changing climate and land use drive geographic range shifts 18 in wildlife, producing novel species assemblages and opportunities for viral sharing 19 between previously isolated species 4,5 . In some cases, this will inevitably facilitate 20 spillover into humans 6,7 -a possible mechanistic link between global environmental 21 change and emerging zoonotic disease 8 . Here, we map potential hotspots of viral 22 sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projec-23 tions of geographic range shifts for 3,870 mammal species under climate change and 24 land use scenarios for the year 2070. Shifting mammal species are predicted to ag-25 gregate at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human pop-26 ulation density in Asia and Africa, sharing novel viruses between 3,000 and 13,000 27 times. Counter to expectations, holding warming under 2°C within the century 28 does not reduce new viral sharing, due to greater range expansions-highlighting 29 the need to invest in surveillance even in a low-warming future. Most projected vi-30 ral sharing is driven by diverse hyperreservoirs (rodents and bats) and large-bodied 31 predators (carnivores). Because of their unique dispersal capacity, bats account for 32 the majority of novel viral sharing, and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary 33 pathways that could facilitate future emergence in humans. Our findings highlight 34 the urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity 35 surveys tracking range shifts, especially in tropical countries that harbor the most 36 emerging zoonoses. 37 2 Main Text 38In the face of rapid environmental change, survival for many species depends on moving 39 to track shifting climates. Even in a best case scenario, many species are projected 40 to shift a hundred kilometers or more in the next century 9,10 . In the process, many 41 animals will bring their parasites and pathogens into new environments 4,11 , creating new 42 evolutionary opportunities for host jumps 8 . Most conceptual frameworks for cross-species 43 transmission revolve around how these host jumps facilitate the spillover of new zoonotic 44 pathogens into humans 12,13,14 , but viral evolution is an undirected process 15 , in which 45 humans are only one of over 5,000 mammal species with over 12 million possible pairwise 46 combinations 16 . Despite their indisputable significance, zoonotic emergence events are 47 just the tip of the iceberg; almost all cross-species transmission events will occur among 48 wild mammals, largely undetected and mostly inconsequential for public health. 49Of the millions of possible pairwise viral exchanges, the vast majority are biologically 50 implausible, as host specie...

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Section: Main Textmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change will drive novel cross-species viral transmission

Carlson

Albery

Merow

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…All data and code necessary to reproduce the results can be found at doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.7497137 (47).…”

Section: Data and Codementioning

confidence: 99%

Disease mortality in domesticated animals is predicted by host evolutionary relationships

Farrell

Davies

2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Infectious diseases of domesticated animals impact human wellbeing via food insecurity, loss of livelihoods, and human infections. While much research has focused on parasites that infect single host species, most parasites of domesticated mammals infect multiple species. The impact of multihost parasites varies across hosts; some rarely result in death, whereas others are nearly always fatal. Despite their high ecological and societal costs, we currently lack theory for predicting the lethality of multihost parasites. Here, using a global dataset of >4,000 case-fatality rates for 65 infectious diseases (caused by microparasites and macroparasites) and 12 domesticated host species, we show that the average evolutionary distance from an infected host to other mammal host species is a strong predictor of disease-induced mortality. We find that as parasites infect species outside of their documented phylogenetic host range, they are more likely to result in lethal infections, with the odds of death doubling for each additional 10 million years of evolutionary distance. Our results for domesticated animal diseases reveal patterns in the evolution of highly lethal parasites that are difficult to observe in the wild and further suggest that the severity of infectious diseases may be predicted from evolutionary relationships among hosts.host specificity | domestication | virulence | phylogeny | infectious disease

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“…Moreover, for zoonotic diseases, a significant fraction of pathogens have host ranges that encompass several mammalian orders, and even nonmammals (Woolhouse & Gowtage‐Sequeria, 2005). Interestingly, host jumps over greater phylogenetic distances may lead to more severe disease and higher mortality (Farrell & Davies, 2019). One factor that could explain why transmission into more distantly related new hosts occurs at all is infection susceptibility; some host clades may simply be more generally susceptible to pathogens (e.g., if they lack broad resistance mechanisms).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The phylogenetic range of bacterial and viral pathogens of vertebrates

et al. 2020

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Many major human pathogens are multihost pathogens, able to infect other vertebrate species. Describing the general patterns of host–pathogen associations across pathogen taxa is therefore important to understand risk factors for human disease emergence. However, there is a lack of comprehensive curated databases for this purpose, with most previous efforts focusing on viruses. Here, we report the largest manually compiled host–pathogen association database, covering 2,595 bacteria and viruses infecting 2,656 vertebrate hosts. We also build a tree for host species using nine mitochondrial genes, giving a quantitative measure of the phylogenetic similarity of hosts. We find that the majority of bacteria and viruses are specialists infecting only a single host species, with bacteria having a significantly higher proportion of specialists compared to viruses. Conversely, multihost viruses have a more restricted host range than multihost bacteria. We perform multiple analyses of factors associated with pathogen richness per host species and the pathogen traits associated with greater host range and zoonotic potential. We show that factors previously identified as important for zoonotic potential in viruses—such as phylogenetic range, research effort, and being vector‐borne—are also predictive in bacteria. We find that the fraction of pathogens shared between two hosts decreases with the phylogenetic distance between them. Our results suggest that host phylogenetic similarity is the primary factor for host‐switching in pathogens.

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Disease mortality in domesticated animals is predicted by host evolutionary relationships

Cited by 17 publications

References 48 publications

Climate change will drive novel cross-species viral transmission

Climate change will drive novel cross-species viral transmission

Disease mortality in domesticated animals is predicted by host evolutionary relationships

The phylogenetic range of bacterial and viral pathogens of vertebrates

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