Disease in endangered metapopulations: the importance of alternative hosts

Woodroffe, Rosie; Swinton, Jonathan

doi:10.1098/rspb.2001.1667

Cited by 99 publications

(106 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In rare hosts, we speculate that losses of specialist parasites may predispose hosts to infection by their generalist competitors or emergent parasites. In line with our speculation, most of the cases in which diseases have caused significant mortality in rare species are attributable to generalist rather than specialist parasites (Dobson & Foufopoulos 2001;Gog et al 2002;de Castro & Bolker 2005). While we know of no clear examples in which the prevalence of the generalist disease or parasite can be directly linked to the absence of the specialist, the mere possibility of such cases should give pause to thought to those actively removing parasites from captive rare species.…”

Section: Consequences (Why Should We Care?)mentioning

confidence: 79%

The sixth mass coextinction: are most endangered species parasites and mutualists?

et al. 2009

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The effects of species declines and extinction on biotic interactions remain poorly understood. The loss of a species is expected to result in the loss of other species that depend on it (coextinction), leading to cascading effects across trophic levels. Such effects are likely to be most severe in mutualistic and parasitic interactions. Indeed, models suggest that coextinction may be the most common form of biodiversity loss. Paradoxically, few historical or contemporary coextinction events have actually been recorded. We review the current knowledge of coextinction by: (i) considering plausible explanations for the discrepancy between predicted and observed coextinction rates; (ii) exploring the potential consequences of coextinctions; (iii) discussing the interactions and synergies between coextinction and other drivers of species loss, particularly climate change; and (iv) suggesting the way forward for understanding the phenomenon of coextinction, which may well be the most insidious threat to global biodiversity.

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Section: Consequences (Why Should We Care?)mentioning

confidence: 79%

The sixth mass coextinction: are most endangered species parasites and mutualists?

et al. 2009

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“…Similarly, susceptible individuals can be infected by pathogens far from their home sites when traveling or commuting. While metapopulation dynamics was incorporated into traditional SI or SIR models many years ago (Bolker and Grenfell 1995;Swinton et al 1998;Gog et al 2002;Arino et al 2005), the addition of human mobility to spatial models of waterborne diseases is more recent. This has been accomplished via either diffusion-based or gravity-like models Chao et al 2011;Tuite et al 2011;Gatto et al 2012;Mari et al 2012aMari et al , 2012bRinaldo et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatially Explicit Conditions for Waterborne Pathogen Invasion

Gatto

Mari

Bertuzzo

et al. 2013

The American Naturalist

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Waterborne pathogens cause many possibly lethal human diseases. We derive the condition for pathogen invasion and subsequent disease outbreak in a territory with specific, space-inhomogeneous characteristics (hydrological, ecological, demographic, and epidemiological). The criterion relies on a spatially explicit model accounting for the density of susceptible and infected individuals and the pathogen concentration in a network of communities linked by human mobility and the water system. Pathogen invasion requires that a dimensionless parameter, the dominant eigenvalue of a generalized reproductive matrix J 0 , be larger than unity. Conditions for invasion are studied while crucial parameters (population density distribution, contact and water contamination rates, pathogen growth rates) and the characteristics of the networks (connectivity, directional transport, water retention times, mobility patterns) are varied. We analyze both simple, prototypical test cases and realistic landscapes, in which optimal channel networks mimic the water systems and gravitational models describe human mobility. Also, we show that the dominant eigenvector of J 0 effectively portrays the geography of epidemic outbreaks, that is, the areas of the studied territory that will be initially affected by an epidemic. This is important for planning an efficient spatial allocation of interventions (e.g., improving sanitation and providing emergency aid and medicines).

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“…Metapopulation infection models can be clearly divided into those that classify whole subpopulations as infectious, susceptible or recovered (Gog et al, 2002;Hess, 1996;McCallum and Dobson, 2002), and those that model the dynamics of infection within each group (Cross et al, 2005;Hess, 1996;Keeling and Gilligan, 2000;Park et al, 2002). The first approach ignores the rise and fall of prevalence within a patch over time and neglects variation between infected subpopulations arising from the stochastic nature of epidemics in finite populations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fully coupled, mechanistic model for infectious disease dynamics in a metapopulation: Movement and epidemic duration

Jesse

Ezanno

Davis

et al. 2008

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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a b s t r a c tThe drive to understand the invasion, spread and fade out of infectious disease in structured populations has produced a variety of mathematical models for pathogen dynamics in metapopulations. Very rarely are these models fully coupled, by which we mean that the spread of an infection within a subpopulation affects the transmission between subpopulations and vice versa. It is also rare that these models are accessible to biologists, in the sense that all parameters have a clear biological meaning and the biological assumptions are explained. Here we present an accessible model that is fully coupled without being an individual-based model. We use the model to show that the duration of an epidemic has a highly non-linear relationship with the movement rate between subpopulations, with a peak in epidemic duration appearing at small movement rates and a global maximum at large movement rates. Intuitively, the first peak is due to asynchrony in the dynamics of infection between subpopulations; we confirm this intuition and also show the peak coincides with successful invasion of the infection into most subpopulations. The global maximum at relatively large movement rates occurs because then the infectious agent perceives the metapopulation as if it is a single well-mixed population wherein the effective population size is greater than the critical community size.

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Disease in endangered metapopulations: the importance of alternative hosts

Cited by 99 publications

References 22 publications

The sixth mass coextinction: are most endangered species parasites and mutualists?

The sixth mass coextinction: are most endangered species parasites and mutualists?

Spatially Explicit Conditions for Waterborne Pathogen Invasion

A fully coupled, mechanistic model for infectious disease dynamics in a metapopulation: Movement and epidemic duration

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