Discussion of “Uncertainty of the Assumptions Required for Estimating the Regulatory Flood: Red River of the North” by Paul E. Todhunter

Mueller, Chanel; Foley, Patrick M.

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000808

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…For the period 1902-1941, the regulated 1% flood was 9,500 cubic feet per second (cfs), while for 1942-2009, the regulated 1% flood was 34,700 cfs. Using the full period of record plus the historic floods in 1882 and 1897, the regulated 1% flood was 33,000 cfs (Mueller & Foley, 2014). Each period had less variance than the variance of the full record (USACE-MVP, 2011b).…”

Section: DCV Nonstationarity and Water Resources Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This estimate was based on the dry period occurring about 35% of the time during the period of record. These probabilities were used to form the combined distribution (Mueller & Foley, 2014). The following questions are addressed by this case study: Does decadal climate information provide any insights into the flow record of the Red River of the North?…”

Section: DCV Nonstationarity and Water Resources Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Incorporating decadal climate variability information in the operation and design of water infrastructure

2021

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The high thermal and mechanical inertia of the oceans results in slow changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Changes in SSTs, in turn, can impact atmospheric circulation including water vapor transport, precipitation, and temperatures throughout the world. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic SST gradient variability, and the West Pacific Warm Pool are patterns of natural climate variability that tend to persist over decadal time periods. There are current efforts to produce decadal climate predictions, but there is limited understanding if this information can be used in water resources management. Understanding the current state of decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena and the probability of persisting in that state may be useful information for water managers. This information could improve forecasts that aid operations and short-term planning for reservoir management, domestic and industrial water supplies, flood risk management, energy production, recreation, inland navigation, and irrigation. If conditions indicate a higher likelihood of drought, reservoir managers could reduce flood storage space and increase storage for conservation purposes. Improved forecasts for irrigation could result in greater efficiencies by shifting crops and rotational crop patterns. The potential benefits of using a forecast must be balanced against the risk of damages if the forecast is wrong. Seasonal forecasts using DCV information could also be used to inform drought triggers. If DCV indices indicate that the climate has a higher probability of dry conditions, drought contingency plans could be triggered earlier. Understanding of DCV phenomena could also improve long-range water resources planning. DCV can manifest itself in relatively short-term hydrologic records as linear trends that complicate hydrologic frequency analysis, which has traditionally assumed that hydrologic records are stationary.

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Section: DCV Nonstationarity and Water Resources Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: DCV Nonstationarity and Water Resources Planningmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating decadal climate variability information in the operation and design of water infrastructure

2021

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“…Because the Red has exceeded that level twice in the last two decades (in 1997 and 2011), it’s clear that, without information regarding the very largest floods, it is not possible to generate accurate forecasts of flood magnitude or flood frequency. If 1826 was also an exceptional flood on the Red in North Dakota and Minnesota, then current flood-frequency curves for the river (Mueller and Foley, 2012) may underestimate the risks posed by future flooding (Figure 1b). Alternatively, if the American stretch of the river did not produce a major flood in 1826, then the recent spate of flooding that has occurred over the last two decades would be exceptional within the context of the last 200 years.…”

Section: The Need For Paleoflood Research In Minnesota and North Dakotamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Red River of the North, which flows northward between Minnesota and North Dakota before entering Canada (Brooks and Nielsen, 2000), has exhibited “extraordinary changes in flood magnitudes in recent decades” (particularly after the 1940s; Villarini et al, 2009), with peak flows having risen more than 15% since the 1880s (Figure 1a; Hirsch, 2011; Mueller and Foley, 2012). The overall trajectory toward higher flows in the Red River basin has featured a spate of extreme floods during the last two decades.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The need for paleoflood investigations on the American reach of the Red River of the North

et al. 2021

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Over the past century, the Red River of the North has been the least stationary river in the continental United States. In Canada, historical and paleoenvironmental evidence indicates severe floods were common during the early 1800s, with the record ce 1826 flood having an estimated peak discharge 50% higher than the second-most severe flood ever observed. Unfortunately, the recorded history of flooding upstream in the United States does not begin until seven decades after this event. If 1826 was an equally exceptional flood on American reach of the river, then current flood-frequency curves for the river underestimate significantly the risks posed by future flooding. Alternatively, if the American stretch did not produce a major flood in 1826, then the recent spate of flooding that has occurred over the past two decades is exceptional within the context of the past 200 years. Communities in the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area are building a 58-km long, $2.75 billion (USD) diversion channel that would redirect floodwaters westward around the two cities before returning it to the main channel. Because this and other infrastructure in North Dakota and Minnesota is intended to provide protection against low-probability, high-magnitude floods, new paleoflood investigations in the region would help local, state, and federal policy-makers better understand the true flood threats posed by the Red River of the North.

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Stationarity is undead: Uncertainty dominates the distribution of extremes

Serinaldi

Kilsby

2015

Advances in Water Resources

382

257

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Keywords:Nonstationary flood frequency analysis Nonstationary return period Risk of failure Nonstationary confidence intervals Generalized linear models Generalized additive models a b s t r a c tThe increasing effort to develop and apply nonstationary models in hydrologic frequency analyses under changing environmental conditions can be frustrated when the additional uncertainty related to the model complexity is accounted for along with the sampling uncertainty. In order to show the practical implications and possible problems of using nonstationary models and provide critical guidelines, in this study we review the main tools developed in this field (such as nonstationary distribution functions, return periods, and risk of failure) highlighting advantages and disadvantages. The discussion is supported by three case studies that revise three illustrative examples reported in the scientific and technical literature referring to the Little Sugar Creek (at Charlotte, North Carolina), Red River of the North (North Dakota/Minnesota), and the Assunpink Creek (at Trenton, New Jersey). The uncertainty of the results is assessed by complementing point estimates with confidence intervals (CIs) and emphasizing critical aspects such as the subjectivity affecting the choice of the models' structure. Our results show that (1) nonstationary frequency analyses should not only be based on at-site time series but require additional information and detailed exploratory data analyses (EDA); (2) as nonstationary models imply that the time-varying model structure holds true for the entire future design life period, an appropriate modeling strategy requires that EDA identifies a well-defined deterministic mechanism leading the examined process; (3) when the model structure cannot be inferred in a deductive manner and nonstationary models are fitted by inductive inference, model structure introduces an additional source of uncertainty so that the resulting nonstationary models can provide no practical enhancement of the credibility and accuracy of the predicted extreme quantiles, whereas possible model misspecification can easily lead to physically inconsistent results; (4) when the model structure is uncertain, stationary models and a suitable assessment of the uncertainty accounting for possible temporal persistence should be retained as more theoretically coherent and reliable options for practical applications in real-world design and management problems; (5) a clear understanding of the actual probabilistic meaning of stationary and nonstationary return periods and risk of failure is required for a correct risk assessment and communication.

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Discussion of “Uncertainty of the Assumptions Required for Estimating the Regulatory Flood: Red River of the North” by Paul E. Todhunter

Cited by 4 publications

References 2 publications

Incorporating decadal climate variability information in the operation and design of water infrastructure

Incorporating decadal climate variability information in the operation and design of water infrastructure

The need for paleoflood investigations on the American reach of the Red River of the North

Stationarity is undead: Uncertainty dominates the distribution of extremes

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