slavko bezeredi and ivica urban: predicting gross wages of non-employed persons in croatia financial theory and practice 40 (1) 1-61 (2016)
IntRoDUctIonThis paper presents the findings of a study aimed at building a model for predicting gross wages of non-employed persons in Croatia, using "EU statistics on income and living conditions" (henceforth SILC) data. These wage predictions will be primarily used as inputs in further research: (a) for the calculation of marginal effective tax rate at the extensive margin (METREM), and (b) for the estimation of discrete choice labour supply models.METREM measures the net benefit of a household occurring in a hypothetical situation, in which a non-employed person enters employment. The transition from non-employment to employment has a complex effect on household income; social benefits are typically reduced or extinguished, which decreases the gain obtained from employment. Furthermore, part of a gross wage is taxed away in terms of personal income tax and social insurance contributions. The traditional approach computes METREM for several "model family types" (e.g., a single person or a couple with one earner and two children aged 12 years).1 Such an approach provides a good description of how the tax-benefit system affects household net income, but ignores the heterogeneity of family and personal characteristics in the population. To provide an accurate picture of the distribution of METREM, real datasets and tax-benefit microsimulation models should be used in estimation.
2EUROMOD is the tax-benefit microsimulation model for the European Union, which provides cross-country comparable measures of direct taxes and social insurance contributions liabilities. The model also provides cash benefit entitlements for the household population of EU member states (Figari et al., 2014). Beginning in 2016, EUROMOD will include the module for simulating the Croatian tax-benefit system. MICROMOD is the tax-benefit microsimulation model 1 Carone et al. (2004) perform such calculations for OECD countries. Bejaković et al. (2012) calculate METREM for eight hypothetical family types in Croatia. The analysis indicated that some family types have very high METREM (near 100%), such as two-adult families, in which both adults are non-employed, and families with three or more children. For non-employed persons in these families "work does not pay" because the withdrawal of benefits is almost as high as the gain from the net wage. 2 Such a model is proposed by Immervoll and O'Donoghue (2002), who calculate METREM using EUROMOD.slavko bezeredi and ivica urban: predicting gross wages of non-employed persons in croatia financial theory and practice 40 (1) 1-61 (2016) 3 for Croatia, which will be based on EUROMOD and contain additional elements concerning local government benefits and labour supply estimation. The effects of the tax-benefit system on household income are evaluated using the microsimulation models of taxes and benefits. However, these models do not per se provide one of th...