Discovering weekly seasonality for water demand prediction using evolutionary algorithms

Lipiński, Piotr; Filipiak, Patryk; Rychlikowski, Paweł; Stańczyk, Justyna; Kajewska-Szkudlarek, Joanna; Łomotowski, Janusz; Konieczny, Tomasz

doi:10.1145/3067695.3082049

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 3 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…To address this challenge, intelligent water supply systems such as extensive Water Demand Forecasting (WDF) are being used in developed countries. They consist in the creation of water consumption forecasts based on data derived from monitoring the water supply network (Tuz 2006;Wawrzosek and Ignaciuk 2018;Wawrzosek et al 2019) and requiring that variability in water consumption be taken into account both in the sector of its prediction and in the solutions used for detecting failures (Brentan et al 2017;Guo et al 2016;Lipiński et al 2017). This knowledge can be used in the planning and modernization of the water supply network (Bradley 2004), the development of water demand standards, hydraulic models, and in the creation of prognostic models of water consumption (Huang et al 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Consumption Variability Based on Cumulative Data From Non-simultaneous and Long-term Measurements

Wawrzosek

Ignaciuk

Stańczyk

et al. 2021

Water Resour Manage

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Devices for water consumption measurement provide data from periodical readings in a non-simultaneous and cumulative manner. This may result in inaccuracies within the process of inference about the short-term habitual patterns of water supply network users. Maintaining systems at the interface between periodic and continuous processes requires the continuous improvement of research methodology. To obtain reliable results regarding the variability of water consumption, the first step should be to estimate it for each observation day by periodic averaging and a possible water balancing approach, but the analysis of the value of estimators obtained in this way usually does not allow for studying autocorrelation. However, other methods indicate the existence of multiplicative parameters characterizing short- and long-term variations in water demand. The purpose of this study is to create a new and deterministic method for tackling the problem associated with a lack of short-term detailed data with fuzzy time series using a multiplicative model for water consumption. Satisfactory results have been obtained, demonstrating that the dispersed data, received in a cumulative manner for random periods of measurement, can be analyzed by the methodology of proposed statistical inference. The observed variability in water consumption may be used in the planning and modernization of water supply systems, development of water demand patterns, hydraulic models, and in the creation of forecasting models of water consumption.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Consumption Variability Based on Cumulative Data From Non-simultaneous and Long-term Measurements

Wawrzosek

Ignaciuk

Stańczyk

et al. 2021

Water Resour Manage

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Selected problems of ambiguity of the dual price of water in the post-optimization analysis of the water supply system

Wawrzosek¹,

Ignaciuk²,

Bochniak³

2019

Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Article citation info: (*) Tekst artykułu w polskiej wersji językowej dostępny w elektronicznym wydaniu kwartalnika na stronie www.ein.org.pl Introduction Fixing the price of water in order to balance water demandAn analysis conducted by the World Bank [64] indicates that water shortages in some regions may reduce GDP by up to 6% and lead to increased migration and in some cases to a greater risk of conflict. Droughts and periods of water scarcity have become a more common and more frequent phenomenon in Europe [17]. The drought experiences in Europe in 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2018 were the worst in a century and affected not only Southern and Western Europe, but also the countries in Northern Europe (including Great Britain, France, Germany, Sweden and Poland). The difference between water supply and its growing demand also determines the key limitations of China's economic development. It is estimated that before 2005 due to a shortage of water in production, China lost $ 28 511 million annually. Brown [7] concluded that the shortage of water in China will soon be a threat to global cereal demand. Therefore, water, alongside cereals and crude oil, is referred to as a strategic resource. Hence, it is suggested that public authorities should shape water pricing for users in order to reflect its true shortage or alternative costs [15].

show abstract

Discovering weekly seasonality for water demand prediction using evolutionary algorithms

Cited by 2 publications

References 3 publications

Water Consumption Variability Based on Cumulative Data From Non-simultaneous and Long-term Measurements

Water Consumption Variability Based on Cumulative Data From Non-simultaneous and Long-term Measurements

Selected problems of ambiguity of the dual price of water in the post-optimization analysis of the water supply system

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About