Disclosing the Tacit Links between Risk and Success in Organizational Development Project Portfolios

Abstract

Project portfolios aim to impact organizational strategic goals, influencing both the organization’s business model and its processes. Nonetheless, the actual impact is dependent on the portfolio’s success, which is affected by the materialization of risk factors. This study aims to examine the tacit conceptualization of project portfolio risk as a risk measure explicitly based on project portfolio success itself. In order to focus on the portfolios of organizational development projects, Social Representation Theory was adopted to analyze empirical evidence from twenty-eight semi-structured interviews conducted with project portfolio practitioners. Findings showed that strategic fit, future preparedness, and stakeholder satisfaction were dimensions of success within which project portfolio risk could be conceptualized. Additionally, results evidenced that risk factors influenced project portfolio success through systematic and non-systematic impacts on project portfolio outputs, and also had direct impacts on project portfolio outcomes. This paper provides empirical evidence to back up the conceptualization of project portfolio risk explicitly oriented to portfolio success as a multidimensional risk measure. It represents a new avenue for conducting portfolio risk analysis for both practitioners and academics, orienting the decision-making process based on the portfolio success rather than only on the success of each project.

A Sugeno ANFIS Model Based on Fuzzy Factor Analysis for IS/IT Project Portfolio Risk Prediction

“…Furthermore, Mercurio et al (2020) elaborated an entropy combinatorial risk calculation method, which outperformed significantly, in most cases, the Mean-variance portfolio optimisation of Markowitz (1952). Micán et al (2022) measured the multidimensional project portfolio risk based on strategic fit, future preparedness, and stakeholder satisfaction.…”

“…Consequently, applying a dimension reduction technique before an Institute, 2017), the portfolio's overall degree of risk should be measured and monitored. Risk calculation and prediction were reported in the literature based on statistical techniques (Micán et al, 2022;Ponsard et al, 2019) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) models (Neumeier et al, 2018;Zhang, 2020). Moreover, neuro-fuzzy models, hybridising ANN and FIS, were also proposed to handle different problems such as the insurance business risk estimation (Hessami, 2018), the overseas construction projects decision prediction (Utama et al, 2019), and stock market segment shocks detection and prediction (Yousofi Tezerjan et al, 2021).…”

Project portfolio risk management. Bibliometry and collaboration Scientometric domain analysis

“…Regarding the current state of PPRM, recent studies [ [32] , [33] , [34] , [35] ] highlight the increasing attention given to Risk Identification, process integration, technology adoption, and continuous evolution within Project Portfolio Risk Management. Organizations recognize the significance of managing risks in their project portfolios and actively seek to implement Risk Management strategies.…”

Risk Management in University–Industry R&D Collaboration Programs: A Stakeholder Perspective

“…All projects are risky, since they are unique undertakings with several degrees of complexity, aiming at providing benefits [1]. They are executed under restrictions and assumptions, while simultaneously seeking to meet diverse potentially conflicting and changeable stakeholder expectations [11,12]. Therefore, organizations should be able to deliver value by choosing to take on project risk, considering the balance between risk and reward, in a manageable and deliberative way [1].…”

“…They can develop appropriate management strategies to achieve success. For example, stakeholder satisfaction should certainly be identified and managed as an objective of the project and program [12]. The key to effective stakeholder engagement is a focus on continuous communication between all participants, including team members, to be able to understand their needs and expectations, address any issues, and manage interests and conflicts [1].…”