Disasters as Ambivalent Multipliers: Influencing the Pathways from Disaster to Conflict Risk and Peace Potential Through Disaster Risk Reduction

Abstract

Disasters, including disaster-related activities, have been shown to precipitate, intensify, and lengthen violent conflicts, yet disasters have also demonstrated the potential to reduce violent conflict, encourage cooperation, and build peace. Disaster-conflict and disaster-peace literature has sought to establish causal and linear relationships, but research has not explored with the same rigour the causal mechanisms linking these phenomena in long-term processes of social-political change and how they are influenced by human actions and inactions. This research fills this gap by drawing on in-depth interviews with disaster risk reduction (DRR) professionals in 25 disaster- and conflict-affected countries in South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa to analyse the pathways leading from disasters and disaster-related activities to violent conflict and peace. The findings highlight how these pathways can be deliberately swayed toward peace potential through DRR.

Informality, violence, and disaster risks: Coproducing inclusive early warning and response systems in urban informal settlements in Honduras

“…Especially in urban FCAC, this can lead to violence concentrating in relatively more vulnerable neighborhoods and/or play into tensions and further conflict between rival neighborhoods. On the other hand, research has also found that marginalized communities without formal ownership and rights may be reluctant to engage in DRR that improves their neighborhoods out of fear that they will be evicted (Peters, 2022). This reaffirms the necessity for transparency, trust, and accountability in EWRS to monitor and redress unintended consequences, and to continuously pursue improved inclusion.…”

Connecting Disasters and Climate Change to the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus

“…CC can influence when conflicts emerge and how they take shape “through multiple pathways that may differ between contexts” (Burke et al, 2015, p. 611). The same is also seen for disasters acting as “ambivalent multipliers,” with the potential to influence not only conflict but also peace, depending on the context and situation (Peters, 2022).…”

“…There is increasing optimism that disaster-related activities like DRR have the potential to contribute to peacebuilding and conflict prevention (Peters & Peters, 2021; Peters et al, 2019). Recent empirical evidence suggests that integrated programming linking DRR with peacebuilding can contribute to reducing vulnerabilities, (re)distributing resources equitably, encouraging cooperation, and finding opportunities for social and political (re)integration and peace (Peters, 2022).…”

“…Development and peace can help to advance actions on CC mitigation and CC adaptation in tandem (Peters, 2022; Walch, 2010). For long-term development and peace, a core part of the HPD nexus, CC actions can encourage collaboration (Keskitalo, 2013).…”

Relocation, Climate Change and Finding a Place of Belonging for Rohingya Refugees

“…1 Scarcity can be caused by climate change leading to “structural scarcity,” the unequal access to natural resources in a society, and “resource capture,” which is the act of elite segments of that society redistributing resources in their favor. There is strong evidence that inequitable distribution of resources is related to conflict risks and may reinforce structural violence that fuels cleavages with real or perceived deprivation growing alongside the capacity of disaffected groups to fight (Peters, 2022).…”