DISARM Early Warning System for Wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean

Abstract

This paper discusses the main achievements of DISARM (Drought and fIre ObServatory and eArly waRning system) project, which developed an early warning system for wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean. The four pillars of this system include (i) forecasting wildfire danger, (ii) detecting wildfires with remote sensing techniques, (iii) forecasting wildfire spread with a coupled weather-fire modeling system, and (iv) assessing the wildfire risk in the frame of climate change. Special emphasis is given to the innovative and replicable parts of the system. It is shown that for the effective use of fire weather forecasting in different geographical areas and in order to account for the local climate conditions, a proper adjustment of the wildfire danger classification is necessary. Additionally, the consideration of vegetation dryness may provide better estimates of wildfire danger. Our study also highlights some deficiencies of both EUMETSAT (Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) and LSA-SAF (Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis) algorithms in their skill to detect wildfires over islands and near the coastline. To tackle this issue, a relevant modification is proposed. Furthermore, it is shown that IRIS, the coupled atmosphere-fire modeling system developed in the frame of DISARM, has proven to be a valuable supporting tool in fire suppression actions. Finally, assessment of the wildfire danger in the future climate provides the necessary context for the development of regional adaptation strategies to climate change.

Combined Forecasting Model of Precipitation Based on the CEEMD-ELM-FFOA Coupling Model

“…Precipitation is an important way to supply water resources to a basin or region. The accurate precipitation forecasts are valuable and rather important for the integration of natural hazards forecasting [1,2]. Precipitation is affected by many factors [3,4], such as topography, atmospheric circulation, the underlying surface, and human activities.…”

Critical Success Factors of Small and Medium Wildfire Effects on Soil Erosion Dynamics: The Case of 2021 Megafires in Greece

“…Furthermore, warmer and drier conditions in the Euro-Mediterranean region are expected over the next decades under future climate projections (Cos et al, 2022;Hysa et al, 2021;Hysa & Spalevic, 2020;Zittis et al, 2019;Nemeth, 2015). Hence, there will be increases in fire extent, intensity and duration of the fire season (Amatulli et al, 2013;Mitsopoulos et al, 2016;Kotroni et al, 2020) leading to an increased likelihood of large wildfires, known as megafires.…”

Early Detection of Wildfires with GOES-R Time Series and Deep GRU-Network

“…In [13] [14], GOES Early Fire Detection (GOES-EFD) utilizing images from GOES satellites is developed and validated, which shows good potential for geostationary satellites to swiftly detect active fires. Similarly, in [15], an early wildfire detection system was developed to monitor the wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean using METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI), which provides coverage over Africa and Europe. GOES-R Active Fire product is based on WildFire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) proposed by [16].…”