Disappearance of an Alpine glacier over the 21st Century simulated from modeling its future surface mass balance

Meur, E. Le; Gerbaux, M.; Schäfer, Martina; Vincent, Christian

doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2007.07.022

Cited by 40 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 14 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…These authors also state, that the inclined glacier surfaces are replaced by horizontal water surfaces which results in steeper upslope glacier surfaces and, hence, in faster ice flow. Such impacts of glacier lake formation on glacier dynamics are not commonly taken into account for physically based, dynamic modeling of future glacier development (e.g., like in the studies from Jouvet et al, 2009or Le Meur et al, 2007. In combination with such models of transient glacier evolution, the temporal component could be included in the assessment of future lake formation.…”

Section: Discussion and Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

Frey

Haeberli

Linsbauer

et al. 2010

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

172

136

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepenings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are applied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investigated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophysical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well.

show abstract

Section: Discussion and Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

Frey

Haeberli

Linsbauer

et al. 2010

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

172

136

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Changes in Alpine glacier extent over the next decades have been Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. calculated using combined models of mass balance and ice dynamics (Vieli et al, 1997;Wallinga and van de Wal, 1998;Schneeberger et al, 2003;Le Meur et al, 2007). Ice flow models, however, require considerable field data input and computational resources and are, in general, not applicable for catchment or regional scale hydrological modelling.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future high-mountain hydrology: a new parameterization of glacier retreat

Huss

Jouvet

Farinotti

et al. 2010

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

239

222

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Global warming is expected to significantly affect the runoff regime of mountainous catchments. Simple methods for calculating future glacier change in hydrological models are required in order to reliably assess economic impacts of changes in the water cycle over the next decades. Models for temporal and spatial glacier evolution need to describe the climate forcing acting on the glacier, and ice flow dynamics. Flow models, however, demand considerable computational resources and field data input and are moreover not applicable on the regional scale. Here, we propose a simple parameterization for calculating the change in glacier surface elevation and area, which is mass conserving and suited for hydrological modelling. The h-parameterization is an empirical glacier-specific function derived from observations in the past that can easily be applied to large samples of glaciers. We compare the h-parameterization to results of a 3-D finite-element ice flow model. As case studies, the evolution of two Alpine glaciers of different size over the period 2008-2100 is investigated using regional climate scenarios. The parameterization closely reproduces the distributed ice thickness change, as well as glacier area and length predicted by the ice flow model. This indicates that for the purpose of transient runoff forecasts, future glacier geometry change can be approximated using a simple parameterization instead of complex ice flow modelling. Furthermore, we analyse alpine glacier response to 21st century climate change and consequent shifts in the runoff regime of a highly glacierized catchment using the proposed methods.

show abstract

“…A similar method has been applied to the ice caps Vatnajökull and Hofjökull in Iceland (Flowers et al, 2005;Aðalgeirs-dottir et al, 2006) and Glacier de Saint-Sorlin in the French Alps (Le Meur et al, 2007). The mass balance of the Icelandic glaciers was computed with a degree-day model; Le Meur et al (2007) used sophisticated atmospheric and snow models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The mass balance of the Icelandic glaciers was computed with a degree-day model; Le Meur et al (2007) used sophisticated atmospheric and snow models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of the ice cap Hardangerjøkulen in southern Norway to the 20th and 21st century climates

Giesen

Oerlemans

2010

The Cryosphere

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Glaciers respond to mass balance changes by adjusting their surface elevation and area. These properties in their turn affect the local and area-averaged mass balance. To incorporate this interdependence in the response of glaciers to climate change, models should include an interactive scheme coupling mass balance and ice dynamics. In this study, a spatially distributed mass balance model, comprising surface energy balance calculations, was coupled to a vertically integrated ice-flow model based on the shallow ice approximation. The coupled model was applied to the ice cap Hardangerjøkulen in southern Norway. The available glacio-meteorological records, mass balance and glacier length change measurements were utilized for model calibration and validation. Forced with meteorological data from nearby synoptic weather stations, the coupled model realistically simulated the observed mass balance and glacier length changes during the 20th century. The mean climate for the period 1961-1990, computed from local meteorological data, was used as a basis to prescribe climate projections for the 21st century at Hardangerjøkulen. For a linear temperature increase of 3 • C from 1961-1990 to 2071-2100, the modelled net mass balance soon becomes negative at all altitudes and Hardangerjøkulen disappears around the year 2100. The projected changes in the other meteorological variables could at most partly compensate for the effect of the projected warming.

show abstract

Disappearance of an Alpine glacier over the 21st Century simulated from modeling its future surface mass balance

Cited by 40 publications

References 14 publications

A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

Future high-mountain hydrology: a new parameterization of glacier retreat

Response of the ice cap Hardangerjøkulen in southern Norway to the 20th and 21st century climates

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About