We investigated whether the early postoperative time course of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level after resection of lung cancer could be used to predict patients' prognosis. Fifty-three lung cancer patients were included in this study. Postoperative serum CEA levels were calculated by means of non-linear least-squares fitting to the equation C(t) = = = =(C 0 -C p )exp(-kt) + + + +C p , where C(t) is postoperative CEA level, t is days after surgery, C 0 is CEA level at postoperative time 0, C p is CEA level at plateau, and k is the rate constant of elimination. Postoperative CEA production (P p ) was calculated as C p multiplied by k. C p and P p represent the numbers of residual tumor cells after surgery. More residual tumor cells yield higher values of C p and P p , and result in earlier recurrence.[Results] Kinetic parameters could be obtained for 30 patients whose preoperative CEA levels were sufficiently elevated. Cutoff levels as predictors for recurrence were 1.1 ng/ml for C p and 0.9 ng/ml/day for P p . The accuracy of prediction of recurrence using these cutoff levels was 79% with C p and 89% with P p . A very poor prognosis was observed for patients with P p over 0.9 ng/ ml/day. easurement of serum tumor marker levels in patients with malignancy is useful for monitoring responses to therapy. When serum tumor marker levels do not normalize after treatment, the existence of residual tumor cells is strongly suspected.1-6) After surgical resection of tumors, serum tumor marker levels decrease in accordance with their individual elimination kinetics to a certain plateau level, [6][7][8][9][10] which is determined by the amount of postoperative tumor marker-producing cells remaining. These remaining tumor marker-producing cells may consist in part of residual tumor cells when the plateau level is higher than the normal range.Serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels in lung cancer patients exhibit monophasic elimination patterns after surgical resection of tumors.11) Evaluation of postoperative CEA timecourse changes by using non-linear least-squares analysis considering residual CEA-producing cells enables calculation of postoperative CEA level at plateau and postoperative CEA production. We previously reported that these two parameters provided information about the prognosis of patients after surgery.11, 12) High postoperative CEA level at the plateau, as well as large postoperative CEA production, indicate the presence of remaining CEA-producing cancer cells. These two parameters may thus be able to predict tumor recurrence.This study examined the diagnostic accuracy of the CEA time-course after surgery as a predictor of recurrence after resection of lung cancer.
Patients and MethodsPatients. A total of 53 patients who underwent radical resection for primary lung cancer at our institute from February 1993 to June 1997, and from whom informed consent for blood sampling was obtained, were included in the study. The patients were 42 males and 11 females, ranging in age from 30 to 81 years (average 65±11...