Dış Ticaret Açığı Veren Ülkelerde Döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Performansı Üzerindeki Etkisi

Abstract

Exchange rates have become increasingly important as the rise of free trade has been supported by globalization and technological developments. In flexible exchange rate systems, the exchange rate is expected to affect the volume of foreign trade and thus aggregate output. In this context, it is important to understand the relationship between the exchange rate and foreign trade in economic policy implementation. The aim of this study is to contribute to the literature by comparatively analyzing the relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade volumes in selected countries. Accordingly, the relationship between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and import and export volumes of the eight countries with the largest foreign trade deficits in 2020 (USA, UK, India, France, Turkiye, Egypt, Philippines, and Pakistan) is estimated using monthly data for the period January 2003–January 2022. By including the REER as a proxy for the exchange rate in the analysis, domestic prices and prices in the trading countries, which are important determinants of foreign trade, are also considered. The heterogeneous structure of the countries and the horizontal cross-sectional dependence between the series are taken into account in the choice of the analysis method. In the analysis using new generation econometric methods compatible with the characteristics of the series, CADF and CIPS unit root tests are followed by Westerlund's (2008) Durbin-Hausman Cointegration Test, then Pesaran's (2006) Common Correlated Effects (CCE) Estimator and Emirmahmutoglu and Kose's (2011) Panel Causality Test are applied.The findings of the analysis are listed as follows. According to the results of the cointegration test, a cointegration relationship was found between the REER and import and export volume in all countries included in the analysis. Then, the long-run coefficients of the models were estimated. According to the CCE estimation results, export volume is negatively affected by the REER in the long run, while import and export volumes are positively affected by each other. According to the Panel Fisher test statistics of the Panel Causality Test, there is a bidirectional causality relationship between export volume and the REER. The bidirectional relationship between the REER and foreign trade volumes in the short run indicates that the interaction between the variables is cyclical.