20Microtubules are cylindrical polymers of αβ-tubulin that play critical roles in fundamental 21 processes like chromosome segregation and vesicular transport. Microtubules display 22 dynamic instability, switching stochastically between growing and rapid shrinking as a 23 consequence of GTPase activity in the lattice. The molecular mechanisms behind 24 microtubule catastrophe, the switch from growing to rapid shrinking, remain poorly 25 defined. Indeed, two-state stochastic models that seek to describe microtubule 26 dynamics purely in terms of the biochemical properties of GTP-and GDP-bound αβ-27 tubulin incorrectly predict the concentration-dependence of microtubule catastrophe. 28 Recent studies provided evidence for three distinct conformations of αβ-tubulin in the 29 lattice that likely correspond to GTP, GDP.P i , and GDP. The incommensurate lattices 30 observed for these different conformations raises the possibility that in a mixed 31 nucleotide state lattice, neighboring tubulin dimers might modulate each other's 32 conformations and hence their biochemistry. We explored whether incorporating a 33 GDP.P i state or the likely effects of conformational accommodation can improve 34 predictions of catastrophe. Adding a GDP.P i intermediate did not improve the model. In 35 contrast, adding neighbor-dependent modulation of tubulin biochemistry improved 36 predictions of catastrophe. Conformational accommodation should propagate beyond 37 nearest-neighbor contacts, and consequently our modeling demonstrates that long-38 range, through-lattice effects are important determinants of microtubule catastrophe.39 40 41Microtubules (MTs) are hollow cylindrical polymers of αβ-tubulin that have essential 42 roles segregating chromosomes during cell division, organizing the cytoplasm, 43 establishing cellular polarity, and more (Desai and Mitchison, 1997). These 44 fundamental activities depend critically on dynamic instability, the stochastic 45 switching of MTs between phases of growing and rapid shrinking (Mitchison and 46 Kirschner, 1984). Dynamic instability is itself a consequence of αβ-tubulin GTPase 47 activity and how it affects interactions between αβ-tubulin in the lattice and at the 48 microtubule end. Although a predictive molecular understanding of catastrophe 49 remains elusive, the broad outlines of an understanding have been established 50 (Mitchison and Kirschner, 1984; VanBuren et al., 2002; Gardner et al., 2011b; 51 Bowne- Anderson et al., 2013; Brouhard, 2015; Duellberg et al., 2016; Brouhard and 52 Rice, 2018). Unpolymerized, GTP-bound αβ-tubulin subunits readily associate at the 53 growing tip of the MTs. Once incorporated into the lattice, αβ-tubulin GTPase activity 54 is accelerated. The assembly-dependence of GTPase activity results in a "stabilizing 55 cap" of GTP-or GDP.P i -bound αβ-tubulin near the end of the growing microtubules.
56Loss of this stabilizing cap triggers catastrophe, the switch from growing to rapid 57 shrinking, because it exposes the more labile GDP-bound micro...