Abstract:Abstract. We pursue a simplified stochastic representation of smaller scale convective activity conditioned on large-scale dynamics in the atmosphere. For identifying a Bayesian model describing the relation of different scales we use a probabilistic approach by Gerber and Horenko (2017) called Direct Bayesian Model Reduction (DBMR). This is a Bayesian relation model between categorical processes (discrete states), formulated via the conditional probabilities. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) i… Show more
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