Direct and indirect impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Europe: a sensitivity analysis for key land- and water-based sectors

Kebede, Abiy S.; Dunford, R. W.; Mokrech, M.; Audsley, E.; Harrison, Paula A.; Holman, Ian P.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Rickebusch, Sophie; Rounsevell, Mark; Sabaté, Santiago; Sallaba, Florian; Sánchez, Anabel; Savin, Cristina; Trnka, Miroslav; Wimmer, Florian

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1313-y

Cited by 34 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…For example, the IAP enables exploration of cross-sectoral interactions by improving simulation efficiency, and removing the very large biases associated with single-sector analyses [28]. Finally, uncertainties and sensitivities in each of the 10 models included in the IAP, and in the integrated IAP itself, have been extensively tested in previous studies [39,41,83,85,86], showing limited and non-biased uncertainties.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Lee

Brown

Seo

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Land-based mitigation, particularly through afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation, is an important component of the Paris Agreement to limit average global temperature increases to between 1.5°C and 2°C. However, the specific actions that would ensure sufficient carbon sequestration in forests remain unclear, as do their trade-offs against other land-based objectives. We use a regional integrated assessment model to identify the conditions under which European forests reach the extent required by mitigation targets. We compare stylised scenarios of changes in meat demand, bioenergy crop production, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. Only 42 out of 972 model simulations achieved minimum levels of food provision and forest extent without the need to change dietary preferences, but relied on crop yield improvements within Europe of at least 30%. Maintaining food imports at today's levels to avoid the potential displacement of food production and deforestation required at least a 15% yield improvement, or a drastic reduction in meat consumption (avg. 57%). The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Lee

Brown

Seo

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…A key aspect to understanding the potential consequences of high-end climate change impacts is the exploration of uncertainty in long-term alternative socioeconomic futures, generally undertaken through the use of scenarios (IPCC 2014). The complex interactions of drivers represented in scenarios and climate change impacts across scales has led to the development of multiscale scenarios ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent examples of the application of global SSPs include subnational and subsectoral SSP narratives for the southeastern United States (Absar and Preston 2015) and Latin America (Jones and Kok 2014), coastal SSPs (Merkens et al 2016), and more recently, deltas across West Africa and South Asia (Kebede et al 2018) and European heat-stress SSPs (Rohat et al 2019). These applications differ in sectoral and geographic scope but are methodologically similar in that they develop subglobal narratives that are "nested" within, i.e., are consistent with, the scenario logic of the global SSPs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Archetyping shared socioeconomic pathways across scales: an application to central Asia and European case studies

Pedde¹,

Kok²,

Hölscher³

et al. 2019

E&S

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“…The temperature of the European continent increased on average by 1.2ºC during the 20th century, the average number of summer days doubled, and the average number of tropical days tripled [13]. These changes obviously have important environmental implications for European agriculture and for the formulation of the priorities of agricultural policy in Europe [14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental Modelling of Climate Change Impact on Grapevines: Case Study from the Czech Republic

Machar¹,

Vlčková²,

Buček³

et al. 2017

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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Predicted climate change can significantly affect ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes. Possibilities of predicting climate change effects on growing conditions of crops are therefore sought for practical reasons. The aim of the present study is to contribute to the current discussions about the impact of climate change on agriculture. The case study from the Czech Republic presents methods and results of environmental modelling of the impact of predicted climatic changes on future conditions for growing grapevines. The model is based on the ecological relationship between climate and vegetation zonation of the landscape and thus belongs to the group of process biogeographic models applicable on a regional scale. The results of the presented model show significant enlargement of areas climatically suitable for growing grapes within the studied area. The results of the model relevant to the Czech Republic are in line with the previous assumptions of trends in future impacts of climate change on viticulture in Europe. However, the data resulting from the presented model, which relate to the time horizon beyond 2050, should be regarded as indicative and fraught with a high degree of uncertainty linked with the uncertainty of the input climatological prediction for this time period.

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Direct and indirect impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Europe: a sensitivity analysis for key land- and water-based sectors

Cited by 34 publications

References 27 publications

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Archetyping shared socioeconomic pathways across scales: an application to central Asia and European case studies

Environmental Modelling of Climate Change Impact on Grapevines: Case Study from the Czech Republic

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