Dire forecast: A theoretical model of the impact of climate change on crime

Abstract

After providing an overview of climate change and its effects, this article draws on the leading crime theories to discuss the potential impact of climate change on crime. It is argued that climate change will increase strain, reduce social control, weaken social support, foster beliefs favorable to crime, contribute to traits conducive to crime, increase certain opportunities for crime, and create social conflict. An overall model of climate change and crime is then presented, along with suggestions for research. Even though neglected by criminologists, there is good reason to believe that climate change will become one of the major forces driving crime as the century progresses.

Free Trade Agreements, Private Courts and Environmental Exploitation: Disconnected Policies, Denials and Moral Disengagement

“…From a criminological point of view, it has been argued that a range of criminal and environmental offences will be among the consequences of climate change that we should anticipate, and some of these will be directly caused by, arise from, or be subject to, attempts to regulate, mitigate, adapt and enforce laws (Agnew 2012;Farrall et al 2012;Fussey and South 2012;Kramer 2013;South 2012: 99-102;White 2012aWhite , 2012b. Among future effects of climate change we could expect and predict environmental conditions that result in scarcity, which can be criminogenic in encouraging corruption, illicit markets, profiteering, trafficking in human beings as environmental refugees, and riots.…”

Exploring green criminology: toward a green criminological revolution

“…it is now two decades later, and in the terms of generational language, an entirely new generation of criminologists has entered the world and has done little to transform the nature of criminology. To be sure, over the past generation, some advances have certainly been made in the area of green criminological research by a handful of pioneers in the field (Agnew, 2012;Beirne, 1999;Beirne and South, 2007;Benton, 2007;Bisschop, 2012;Croall, 2009;Eman, Meško and Fields, 2009;Gibbs et al, 2010;Groombridge, 1998;Hall, 2013;Hauck, 2008;Jarrell and Ozymy, 2012;Katz, 2010;Kramer and Michalowski, 2012;Lane, 1998;Lynch and Stretesky, 2003;Nurse, 2013;Ruggiero and South, 2010;Sollund, 2008;South and Brisman, 2013;Takemura, 2007;van Solinge 2010;Walters, 2006;White, 2008a;Wyatt, 2012).…”

Of Theory and Meaning in Green Criminology

“…For example, Stretesky (2006) has drawn on rational choice and deterrence theories of crime to determine the likelihood that regulated entities will discover, disclose and correct environmental violations under the United States Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Self-Policing Policy (formally titled 'Incentives for Self-Policing: Discovery, Disclosure, Correction and Prevention of Violations' and commonly referred to as the EPA's 'Audit Policy'). In an effort to understand how environmental-related harms are facilitated by states, Du Rées (2001) 2009; Clarke 2011, 2012); (3) self-control theory (Ray and Jones 2011); (4) social learning theory (Sollund 2011); and (5) strain theory (Agnew 2012a(Agnew , 2012b), as illustrated above. But it is important to add that the relationship between green criminology and such mainstream criminological theory has not been unidirectional.…”

“…Other theories focus on macro-or group-level explanations of crime: they attempt to explicate why certain groups commit certain crimes (Cullen and Agnew 2011 For example, Agnew (2012aAgnew ( , 2012b has drawn on criminological theories that are usually used to explain 'street crimes' such as assault, larceny and robbery to discuss the potential impact of climate change on crime. He has argued that climate change will increase strain, reduce social control and increase social disorganization, weaken levels of conventional social support, foster beliefs and values favorable to crime, increase the prevalence and severity of traits conducive to crime, affect certain opportunities for crime, and contribute to or create social conflict, as well as reduce the ability and willingness of individuals and groups to take meaningful action.…”

“…If we take these examples together, we might conceptualize and represent green criminology's theoretical engagement as presented in Figure 1. Agnew's (2012aAgnew's ( , 2012b use of strain theory.…”