Diminishing evapotranspiration paradox and its cause in the Middle East and North Africa

Hamed, Mohammed Magdy; Iqbal, Zafar; Nashwan, Mohamed Salem; Kineber, Ahmed Farouk; Shahid, Shamsuddin

doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106760

Cited by 16 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Particularly, potential evapotranspiration (PET) will show a high positive anomaly (with respect the reference period) as a result of temperature increase in the region as reported by [3,4] . For this reason, Terink W, et al [1] made a special focus on the combination of supply (represented by the total precipitation) and demand (represented by the PET) to possibly detect critical periods with regard to water availability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

“…Regardless of the physical principles of which the PM is based, the PM has some limitations. For instance, Brutsaert W and Parlange MB [9] reported that under extreme dry condition (as in the MENA region; [3,4]), the PM method may not be suitable for computing the PET because the PM requires a surplus of soil moisture (not available in the MENA region because the soil moisture has values up to 11 mm (Figure S1). Besides, the PM involves many atmospheric variables (not often available spatially or temporary) and majority of these variables are computed empirically leading to a large increase of the uncertainty of the computed PET as reported by [10][11][12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Constraining the Potential Evapotranspiration of Egypt Using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) and Climate Research Unit Dataset (CRU)

Anwar¹

2023

J Biomed Res Environ Sci

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Accurate forecast of the Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) at a location (where station observation is not available) is necessary in arid/hyper-arid regions (e.g., Egypt) to monitor daily agricultural activities. The Penman-Monteith equation is the standard physical method to compute the PET, but it requires many variables (mostly are calculated empirically). Instead, the Hargreaves-Samani (HS) method was used because it is recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization and it requires only two variables: global incident solar radiation and daily mean air temperature. Additionally, regional climate models (e.g., RegCM4) can be an alternative tool to estimate the PET constrained by a long-term gridded PET data (Climate Research Unit; CRU) at any location. To accomplish this task, a 39-year simulation was conducted. The RegCM4 was driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis with 60 km grid spacing. Preliminary results indicated that the RegCM4 was able to capture the monthly variability of the simulated PET with respect to the CRU; however the model overestimates the PET particularly in the summer months (June, July and August). Over all considered locations, performance of the RegCM4 was notably improved when a linear regression model (LRM; between RegCM4 and CRU) was used (indicated by a low bias between the corrected RegCM4 and CRU). In conclusion, the RegCM4 model can accurately calculate the PET at the location of interest by means of the HS equation and a LRM either in the present climate or under different future scenarios.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Constraining the Potential Evapotranspiration of Egypt Using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) and Climate Research Unit Dataset (CRU)

Anwar¹

2023

J Biomed Res Environ Sci

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“…The KGE metric, which combines the normalized variance, the spatial variability ratio, and Pearson's correlation (represented as "r"), was used to quantify the skills of GCMs. The KGE metric is chosen due to its potential to capture extremes and ranges from 1 to ∞ (Hamed et al, 2023;Sobh et al, 2022;. A value of 1 KGE score shows the best match.…”

Section: Gcm Evaluation Based On Past Performancementioning

confidence: 99%

A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan

Ali,

Hamed,

Muhammad

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The study used a hybrid approach to evaluate the performance of 20 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in reproducing 20 extreme temperature and precipitation indices over Pakistan. This study first analysed the future simulations of extremes and discarded the GCMs whose projections fell outside the 95% confidence interval. The remaining GCMs' performance was evaluated using the Kling Gupta Efficiency‐based criteria. The changes in extreme climatic events in Pakistan were projected using the multi‐model ensemble (MME) median of the selected GCMs for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) in two future periods, 2020–2059 and 2060–2099. Four GCMs' showed inconsistency in projecting future climatic extremes and were discarded initially. The past performance of the remaining GCMs revealed EC‐Earth3‐Veg‐LR, GFDL‐ESM4, MRI‐ESM2‐0 and NOR‐ESM2‐MM to be effective in reproducing extreme indices for the historical period. The MME median of the selected GCMs showed a gradual increase in most of the temperature and precipitation extreme indices in the future periods for all SSPs across the country. Specifically, it showed a higher increase in daily maximum temperature (TXx) by 4.5–5°C, daily minimum temperature (TNn) by more than 4.5°C, consecutive days with a temperature higher than the 95th percentile (WSDI) by >160 days, one‐day maximum rainfall by 9–15 mm and days with precipitation above the 95th percentile by >50 mm in northern high‐elevated areas during 2060–2099 for SSP585. Similarly, a higher increase in TXx by 4.5–5°C, TNn by >4.5°C, WSDI by 140 days and tropical nights by 40–60 days was also found in the western arid region during 2060–2099 for SSP585. The study highlights that northern high‐elevated and western arid regions are at a higher risk of extreme temperatures and precipitation due to climate change.

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Spatiotemporal analysis of compound droughts and heat waves in the Horn of Africa

Alasow,

Hamed,

Rady

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of weather extremes, including droughts, heat waves and compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events. CDHW events profoundly impact water availability, agriculture, public health and energy production, particularly in the Horn of Africa (HOA). This study examined the historical spatiotemporal patterns of CDHW periods in the HOA during three periods (1951–1980, 1971–2000 and 1991–2020) using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. This study utilized monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) data to detect droughts and daily maximum temperature data to identify heatwaves for characterizing the duration, severity and magnitude of CDHW events. The results show a substantial increase in the duration of CDHW events in recent years, with durations reaching up to 25 days. The average duration of heat waves also increased from 7 days before 1993 to 18 days by 2011, culminating in a record‐breaking 43‐day heat wave in 2019. Most areas experienced a significant increase in heatwave duration by more than 12 days from the early period of 1951–1980 to the late period of 1991–2020. Although around 76% and 69% of the HOA exhibited insignificant heatwave trends in the first two periods, Ethiopia and Kenya experienced substantial increases of more than 18 days during the most recent period, with some durations exceeding 25 days in recent decades. The magnitude of CDHW events generally decreased as drought duration intensified, but specific areas, particularly southwest Kenya and Eritrea, exhibited higher CDHW values in the last period. These findings underscore the urgent need to understand and address CDHW events in the HOA. Targeted interventions for disaster risk reduction and resilience‐building are needed to mitigate the adverse effects of these events in this vulnerable region. This study provides a basis for future research and policy formulation in the HOA.

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Diminishing evapotranspiration paradox and its cause in the Middle East and North Africa

Cited by 16 publications

References 48 publications

Constraining the Potential Evapotranspiration of Egypt Using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) and Climate Research Unit Dataset (CRU)

Constraining the Potential Evapotranspiration of Egypt Using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) and Climate Research Unit Dataset (CRU)

A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan

Spatiotemporal analysis of compound droughts and heat waves in the Horn of Africa

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