Diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles considering dynamic preferences

Oliveira, Gabriela D.; Roth, Richard; Dias, Luís C.

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2019.06.002

Cited by 31 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…Also after using the derived information from the analysis, sales have been forecasted for different products of different product lines. By incorporating the concept of the product line for any brand helps them to achieve their goals in terms of more revenue and customer satisfaction as multi-generation is an on-going process which keeps on attracting customers (Oliveira et al 2019 ). Another major benefit of using product line is, when a product has reached the last stage of its life cycle that is in the declining stage, and then at the same time there are other products available in the market of that product line which helps in avoiding loss of customers (or business) from its competitors (Kamolsook et al 2019 ).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Modelling product lines diffusion: a framework incorporating competitive brands for sustainable innovations

et al. 2022

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Understanding of consumer behavior, their changing demands due to increase in social interactions and communications, adoption of latest technologies over existing products have always been a set of fundamental activities for the firms. Keeping the objective of minimum process disruptions and discouraging product proliferation, firms always endeavor to match heterogeneous demands of consumers by emphasizing on the product line. Also, with globalization, rivalry amongst firms has reached a next level. Brands are trying to capture the market by coming up with various combinations of new product mix. Amongst various attributes of product mix, product line has helped firms to attract new potential buyers to a significantly good extent. Therefore, in today’s cutthroat competitive scenario, the concept of product line provides an opportunity for a firm to provide same kind of products with some variation at an altered pricing. The objective of this study is to understand how customers behave (with so many options) and deviate from one product to another product (within and outside the brand). All the possible customers’ shifting combinations that might impact the overall sales of product are captured through the proposed model. A mathematical innovation diffusion model is developed that is motivated by the concept of Bass model and multiple generational diffusion models. This modelling framework describes the scenario of competitive brands that offer multiple products in a marketplace and observing the shifting behavior of the customers and predict the sales when product lines are available. Validation of the model has been done on real-life sales data sets for automobiles industries of two different brands i.e., Hyundai and Maruti Suzuki. The importance of this study is to deliver a solution to the manufacturers that how consumer shifts from one brand to another brand. Therefore, it is imperative for the companies to develop such a product that would lead to customers’ loyalty towards the brand.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Modelling product lines diffusion: a framework incorporating competitive brands for sustainable innovations

et al. 2022

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“…Considering past research focusing on PEVs, system-dynamic models, agent-based models, and discrete choice models are commonly used for explaining and predicting the diffusion of battery electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). System dynamic or simulation-based models also allow the researcher to account for policy feedback and dynamic preferences that are difficult to consider in choice models and thereby often ignored (17,18). On the other hand, based on disaggregated data, discrete choice models allow researchers to identify and analyze the factors that drive vehicle purchase behavior at the individual-or household-level and subsequently predict the market share of the alternative fuel technologies based on well-grounded consumer behavior theories (19)(20)(21).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plug-in electric vehicle diffusion in California: Role of exposure to new technology at home and work

Chakraborty

Bunch

Brownstone

et al. 2022

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice

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The market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) that primarily include battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) has been rapidly growing in California for the past few years. Given the targets for PEV penetration in the state, it is important to have a better understanding of the pattern of technology diffusion and the factors that are driving the process. Using spatial analysis and Poisson count models, the researchers identify the importance of a neighborhood effect (at home locations) and a workplace effect (at commute destinations) in supporting the diffusion of PEV technology in California. In the case of new BEV sales, they found that exposure to one additional BEV or PHEV within a 1-mile radius of a block group centroid is associated with a 0.2% increase in BEV sales in the block group. Interestingly, for new PHEV sales, the neighborhood effect of BEV sales is negative, suggesting that enhanced exposure to this type of technology (which is differentiated in distinctive ways from PHEVs) may impact new PHEV sales through a substitution effect. Specifically, higher BEV concentration in an area can have an overall negative effect on new PHEV sales. While the neighborhood effect at residential locations is important, workplace effect also have a notably important effect on new PEV sales. Both effects work in combination with socioeconomic, demographic, policy, and built environment factors in encouraging PEV adoption. These results suggest that policymakers should consider targeted programs and investments that can boost the impact of neighborhood and peer effects on PEV sales 17. Key Words Plug-in electric vehicles, Peer effects, Spatial analysis, Count model 18. Distribution Statement No restrictions. 19. Security Classif. (of this report) Unclassified 20. Security Classif. (of this page) Unclassified

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“…Fourth, the "Struben and Sterman model" was adapted by Shepherd et al (2012) and interestingly incorporated the results of the DC model by Batley et al (2004). A more recent example is Oliveira et al (2019), who extended the "Struben and Sterman model" to investigate dynamic consumer preferences towards AFVs in the Portuguese market "by including two sets of utility functions for each attribute" (p. 88). In our view, the "Struben and Sterman model" stands out for its influence in the research community, reflected also in the number of citations.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating the battery price and the car-mix in key electro-mobility markets via model coupling

Vilchez

Thiel

2020

Journal of Simulation

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This paper describes the modelling process of soft-linking two system dynamics models of the automotive ecosystem: the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent model and the Transport, Energy, Economics, Environment model. The objective of this work is to explore future battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric powertrain deployment in key electromobility markets: China, European Union, India, Japan, Norway and the United States. In the "Alternative" scenario, a combined stock of almost 130 million electric cars in 2030 is simulated. Yet, conventional car technology continues to dominate the car-mix. By soft-linking the two models and adding information from the electric bus market, a more realistic representation of the historical battery price evolution is obtained. Due to the uncertain evolution of the battery price, sensitivity analyses are performed. We conclude that the battery price remains a crucial explanatory variable for annual electric car sales in simulation exercises.

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Diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles considering dynamic preferences

Cited by 31 publications

References 70 publications

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Modelling product lines diffusion: a framework incorporating competitive brands for sustainable innovations

RETRACTED ARTICLE: Modelling product lines diffusion: a framework incorporating competitive brands for sustainable innovations

Plug-in electric vehicle diffusion in California: Role of exposure to new technology at home and work

Simulating the battery price and the car-mix in key electro-mobility markets via model coupling

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