Differential effects of climate change on average and peak demand for heating and cooling across the contiguous United States

Abstract

While most electricity systems are designed to handle peak demand during summer months, pathways to deep decarbonization generally electrify building heating, thus increasing electricity demand during winter. A key question is how climate variability and change will affect peak heating and cooling demand in an electrified future. We conduct a spatially explicit analysis of trends in temperature-based proxies of electricity demand over the past 70 years. Average annual demand for heating (cooling) decreases (increases) over most of the contiguous US. However, while climate change drives robust increases in peak cooling demand, trends in peak heating demand are generally smaller and less robust. Because the distribution of temperature exhibits a long left tail, severe cold snaps dominate the extremes of thermal demand. As building heating electrifies, system operators must account for these events to ensure reliability.

Integrating Climate Risk into Long-Term Energy Planning: A Critical Review

“…Similarly, a comparison of 1996-2005 weather data in Texas with downscaled projections under RCP 8.5 for 2041-2050 revealed that under this high-emissions scenario, net demand could increase by up to 6% and thermal deratings during peak hours could increase by 40% (Craig et al, 2020). A retrospective and temperature-based analysis observed consistent increases in summer average and peak cooling demand across the continental United States (Amonkar et al, 2023). While warmer winters reduce total electricity demand during winters, researchers found that the likelihood and severity of extreme cold temperatures in the mid-latitudes, which are particularly consequential for electricity systems, are unlikely to decrease for several decades (Doss-Gollin et al, 2021;Cohen et al, 2020).…”

“…A particular challenge is that in many regions, the interannual variability of peak heating demand (i.e., winter temperature extremes) is substantially larger than peak cooling demands (i.e., summer temperature extremes). As electrification of building heating continues, grids must prepare for rare and variable winter peaks rather than for frequent and more predictable summer peaks (Amonkar et al, 2023;Doss-Gollin et al, 2021).…”

“…At the same time, the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable generation, motivated in part by commitment to mitigating global climate change (Meinshausen et al, 2022), is changing the electricity system's vulnerability to weather risks. Studies that examine the influence of climate change on existing infrastructure find that while overall changes in electricity demand may be modest, peak demand will see a significant increase due to climate change effects (Auffhammer et al, 2017;Romitti and Sue Wing, 2022;Amonkar et al, 2023).…”